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Akbar Novruz

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The upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara is shaping up to be far more than another gathering focused on defense budgets. As leaders of all 32 member states prepare to convene in Türkiye on July 7-8, the alliance finds itself navigating one of the most complex strategic environments since the end of the Cold War. While the commitment to increase defense spending remains a central pillar of the agenda, the broader questions confronting NATO run much deeper: the future of Ukraine, the credibility of transatlantic unity, Europe's growing push for strategic autonomy, and Washington's evolving global priorities.

The 2026 summit builds upon commitments made at last year's meeting in The Hague, where allies agreed to raise annual defense spending to five percent of GDP by 2035, replacing the long-standing two percent benchmark adopted in 2014. Since then, European allies and Canada have significantly expanded their defense investments, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has already indicated that billions of dollars in new defense-related contracts are expected to be announced in Ankara.

Yet military spending alone will not determine the summit's success.

Russia's continued war against Ukraine remains at the center of NATO's security agenda, but recent developments have also exposed broader political tensions within the alliance. Diverging approaches to the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, renewed debates following President Donald Trump's remarks regarding Greenland, and growing differences between Washington and several European capitals over long-term strategic priorities have fueled concerns about the alliance's cohesion.

These divisions extend beyond government circles. Recent polling has shown declining confidence among Americans that European allies would come to the United States' defense if necessary, underscoring the growing perception gap across the Atlantic.

Against this backdrop, AzerNEWS spoke with former military attaché and retired General Yücel Karauz, who believes the Ankara Summit represents a pivotal moment that could define NATO's future direction.

"The NATO Summit, to be held in Ankara on July 7-8, 2026, hosted by Türkiye, is seen as a strategic turning point that will shape the future of the alliance. In light of current geopolitical shifts and changes in defense paradigms, we can evaluate your questions under the following headings," he said.

Karauz argues that the primary objective of the Ankara Summit will be strengthening NATO's deterrence capabilities as the international security environment continues to evolve.

"The main agenda item of the Ankara Summit will be to increase NATO's deterrence capacity in the changing global security architecture."

Among the most sensitive issues, he says, will be Ukraine's future relationship with the alliance.

"The Status of Ukraine: The demand for the Kyiv administration to be recognized as 'not only a recipient of aid, but also a security provider' is one of the most critical topics of the summit. It is expected that the de facto integration of Ukraine into NATO structures will be formalized and the alliance's security commitments to Ukraine will be placed within a long-term framework."

Beyond Ukraine, Karauz believes restoring confidence among allies has become equally important.

"The Unity of the Alliance: In the environment of 'uncertainty' created by the US's foreign policy priorities towards Europe, the aim is to strengthen the transatlantic bond and to re-emphasize the commitment to collective defense (Article 5)."

His assessment reflects a growing concern shared across Europe that NATO's greatest challenge may no longer be external threats alone, but preserving political cohesion within the alliance itself.

The challenge behind NATO's ambitious spending target

Another defining issue for the summit will be whether allies can realistically fulfill their commitment to dramatically increase defense spending over the next decade.

Karauz describes the target as highly ambitious.

"The decision by NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 (3.5% for basic defense requirements and 1.5% for infrastructure/industry) is an ambitious goal."

He points out that the financial implications will be enormous.

"Realism: Based on current data, increasing the alliance's defense spending to this level would mean an additional budget burden of approximately $1.2 trillion per year. This would create significant financial pressure, particularly for European countries with low economic growth rates."

Not every member, he notes, is equally positioned to meet such obligations.

Allies That Will Struggle:

Countries like Spain: Some member states, already far from the target and experiencing budgetary constraints, have called this rate 'unreasonable' and requested flexibility.

Economic Vulnerability: Many European allies with high public debt burdens will have to strike a difficult balance between social spending and defense budgets."

These economic realities suggest that while political consensus may exist today, implementation could prove significantly more difficult as governments face competing domestic priorities over the coming decade.

Europe's search for greater strategic autonomy

The summit also comes as European allies continue reassessing their long-term dependence on the United States.

Karauz believes recent debates surrounding Greenland and Washington's broader "America First" approach have accelerated discussions across Europe regarding independent defense capabilities.

"The US interest in regions like Greenland and its 'America First' focused foreign policy are triggering discussions about strategic autonomy among European allies."

He explains that many European governments increasingly interpret these developments as signals that Europe must prepare to shoulder greater responsibility for its own security.

"European Perspective: European capitals perceive such US foreign policy moves as a security threat or a sign of indifference in their own 'backyard.' This situation highlights the need for Europe to develop its own defense industry and take projects like a 'European Army' more seriously."

Within this broader debate, Ukraine has become more than simply a frontline state resisting Russian aggression.

"The Ukraine Factor: The integration of Ukraine is not only a bulwark against Russia but also a test of Europe's capacity to protect its own security independently of the US."

As NATO leaders gather in Ankara, the alliance therefore faces decisions that extend well beyond defense budgets and procurement contracts. The summit will test whether NATO can preserve its political unity while adapting to shifting geopolitical realities, balancing America's evolving strategic priorities with Europe's growing desire for greater autonomy, and determining how Ukraine's future fits into the alliance's long-term security architecture.

For Türkiye, hosting such a consequential meeting further reinforces its position as one of NATO's key strategic actors, situated at the crossroads of Europe, the Black Sea, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. Whether the Ankara Summit ultimately succeeds may depend less on the announcements made over two days than on whether allies can demonstrate that, despite growing differences, collective defense remains the foundation of the transatlantic alliance.