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Oil prices near $100 trigger global shift back to interest rate hikes

The transition in global monetary policy over the last few months represents one of the most significant pivots in recent economic history. As 2025 drew to a close and the early weeks of 2026 unfolded, a sense of cautious optimism permeated international markets. The prevailing narrative suggested that the aggressive cycle of monetary tightening, which had characterized the post-pandemic recovery years, had finally done its work. Central banks across the globe, including the European Central Bank and authorities in emerging markets like Brazil and Kazakhstan, began to lower their benchmark interest rates to stimulate growth.