Azerbaijani government reveals economic forecasts for 2016-2019
By Aynur Karimova
The Azerbaijani government expects the economic growth of the country to hold steady at 1.8 percent in 2016, according to a draft concept of socio-economic development for 2016 and the next three years, which was presented to the Azerbaijani Parliament as part of the budget package.
The real GDP growth rate is expected to increase by 2.6 percent in 2017, 3.6 percent in 2018, and 5 percent in 2019.
According to forecasts, Azerbaijan's GDP will amount to 57.735 billion manats ($55.06 billion) in 2016, 60.19 billion manats ($57.4 billion) in 2017, 63.143 billion manats ($60.2 billion) in 2018, and 67.512 billion manats ($64.39 billion) in 2019.
In the country's oil sector, value-added production is expected to top 16.285 billion manats ($15.53 billion) in 2016, 15.941 billion manats ($15.2 billion) in 2017, 16.103 billion manats ($15.36 billion) in 2018, and 17.349 billion manats ($16.55 billion) in 2019.
Production in the non-oil sector is expected to reach 41.45 billion manats ($39.53 billion) in 2016, 44.25 billion manats ($42.2 billion) in 2017, 47.04 billion manats ($44.86 billion) in 2018, and 50.163 billion manats ($47.84 billion) in 2019.
The share of private sector earnings in the GDP is projected at 82.2 percent in 2016.
The state hopes to expand the non-oil sector share of the GDP and budget revenues, create financial security in order to raise the level of industrial production, and establish enterprises in the non-oil sector in the 2016-2019 period.
The document confirms that the development of competitive sub-spheres is the top priority for non-oil sector development.
“State support for production of non-oil products will be strengthened, new enterprises will be created and the reconstruction of the existing ones will be carried out,” according to the draft concept.
Particular attention will be paid to the establishment of the enterprises for processing natural resources and agricultural products.
In 2016, the timely and full redistribution of tax revenues from medium and large enterprises will be ensured in order to increase revenues from the non-oil sector.
Next year’s inflation is projected at 0.8 percent, and the government expects a decline in consumer prices during the next three years: deflation is projected at 1.6 percent in 2017, 1.2 percent in 2018, and 1.8 percent in 2019.
The official exchange rate for September 23 was 1.0485 AZN/USD.
Aynur Karimova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Aynur_Karimova
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