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AzerNEWS Staff

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The contradictory figures and survey results presented by various sociological centers ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia clearly demonstrate that the political rivalry in the country is heavily built upon manipulation and information warfare. These speculations, centered on the political preferences of the more than 2,480,000 eligible voters, show that both Western and Russian-oriented organizations are attempting to shape the electoral scenarios to serve their own interests. The statistical data provided is less of a reflection of genuine public opinion and more of a tactical effort to lay the groundwork for potential post-election unrest.

Figures released by the local representative of the pro-Russian and opposition-aligned Gallup International Association, "MPG," alongside the "Empirica" company, emphasize a distinct weakening of the government's position. According to data published by "MPG" for the month of May, only 28.8% of respondents stated they would vote for the current ruling party. In this poll, the collective weight of the opposition forces was presented as significantly higher, claiming that the "Strong Armenia" bloc, led by pro-Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, holds 14.9%, Robert Kocharyan’s "Armenia" bloc commands 12.1%, and Gagik Tsarukyan’s "Prosperous Armenia" party stands at 8.7%. The "Empirica" organization pushed the manipulation even further, publishing numbers that alleged Karapetyan would receive 41% of the support compared to Nikol Pashinyan’s 36.3% in a hypothetical face-to-face matchup. The primary objective behind these figures is to cultivate a narrative of a potential opposition victory, thereby preparing the public for mass protests.

On the other hand, the results of a sociological study conducted in May by the Western-leaning International Republican Institute (IRI) present a completely different and contrasting reality. According to this report, 32% of Armenian society directly supports the ruling party, positioning the incumbents as the absolute frontrunner of the elections. In the IRI report, the ratings of the pro-Russian opposition were reduced to a minimum, rendering them nearly marginal. This Western-centric poll asserts that the "Strong Armenia" bloc can only gather 6% of the vote, while former President Kocharyan’s "Armenia" bloc stands at 3%, and the "Prosperous Armenia" party falls entirely outside the parliamentary threshold with a mere 1%.

Expert circles emphasize that major political risks lie behind these stark numerical discrepancies. According to analyses by commentators such as Armen Khachikyan and Armen Badalyan, these surveys grant both sides strategic manipulation tools in the post-election period. Should the government utilize administrative intervention to influence the final results, it will justify its victory using the IRI's "32% leadership" scenario. Conversely, the opposition will reference the data from "MPG" and "Empirica" to claim that Pashinyan lost and that the results were systematically falsified, using this as a trigger to launch street riots. Analysts predict that the actual outcome will depend heavily on voter turnout. If participation remains below 50%, the ruling party will likely be able to form a government on its own using administrative resources. However, if voter turnout exceeds the 55-60% threshold, the ruling party's vote share is expected to drop into the 35-45% range, allowing 5 to 6 political forces—including smaller factions like "New Power" or "Democracy, Law, and Order"—to enter parliament, which would ultimately plunge the country into a deep coalition crisis