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Akbar Novruz

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El Niño-driven drought conditions are threatening India's sugarcane harvest, raising concerns over global sugar supplies and the prospect of higher food prices worldwide, AzerNEWS reports.

India, one of the world's two largest sugar producers and exporters alongside Brazil, is experiencing water shortages in its key sugar-growing states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, as the weather phenomenon disrupts the southwest monsoon.

Analysts warn that weaker monsoon rains could reduce India's annual sugar production by between 3 million and 8 million tonnes. If India maintains or further tightens its sugar export restrictions while Brazil is unable to quickly increase production due to processing constraints, global sugar prices could rise sharply.

India has already extended its ban on sugar exports until September 30. Market experts say that if the country completely halts sugar exports, international prices could climb to between $750 and $800 per tonne.

Concerns over tightening supplies have already pushed white sugar futures on the London market above $660 per tonne since early June.

Sugarcane is India's second most strategically important agricultural crop after rice, and the country remains one of the world's leading producers and exporters of sugar.

Analysts caution that a prolonged disruption in Indian exports would particularly affect sugar-importing countries across Africa and South Asia, potentially driving up retail sugar prices and contributing to a 10–15% increase in overall food costs in affected markets.