Azernews.Az

Qabil Ashirov

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The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for an extended period as inflation continues to hover near the upper limit of the regulator's target range, according to an assessment by ING, the Netherlands' largest financial group, AzerNEWS reports.

ING noted that the CBA left its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5% during its June 24 meeting. The bank believes the central bank's recent policy signals indicate that borrowing costs are likely to remain stable for the foreseeable future. Analysts attribute this stance primarily to consumer price inflation remaining close to the upper boundary of the CBA's 4% ±2 percentage point target corridor.

According to ING, Azerbaijan's macroeconomic environment continues to be characterized by strong fiscal fundamentals alongside relatively modest economic growth. While growth remains subdued, the country's financial position continues to benefit from prudent fiscal management and significant sovereign assets.

ING also highlighted the recent decision by Fitch Ratings to reaffirm Azerbaijan's BBB- sovereign credit rating. The agency cited the country's low level of public debt and substantial sovereign wealth assets as key strengths underpinning its credit profile.

Looking ahead, ING analysts believe that the principal risks facing Azerbaijan and the broader region during the second half of 2026 will stem from geopolitical developments, persistent inflationary pressures, and evolving conditions in international financial markets that could influence access to external financing.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision on July 31, a meeting that investors and market participants will closely monitor for further guidance on the country's monetary policy outlook.