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Ulviyya Poladova

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European natural gas prices have climbed to their highest level since early 2023 amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.

October gas futures at the Dutch TTF hub rose 4.4% to €69.9 per megawatt-hour, marking their highest level since January 2023.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), gas storage facilities across Europe are currently 64.7% full, below the historical average for this time of year.

Analysts say the latest price increase is mainly linked to concerns that the renewed fighting in the Middle East could disrupt LNG exports from the Gulf. There are also growing concerns about Europe’s gas reserves ahead of the winter, as storage levels remain below the seasonal average.

Milder weather expected across Europe in early September could help keep gas demand in check. However, relatively low storage levels, uncertainty over LNG supplies from the Gulf and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are continuing to push prices higher.

The conflict could also affect LNG shipments from major Gulf producers, including Qatar, and create further uncertainty in the global gas market. If exports from the region remain disrupted for a prolonged period, European buyers could face stronger competition from Asian countries for available LNG cargoes.

Analysts warn that a long-term disruption to LNG exports from the Gulf could lead to further increases in European gas prices in the coming months.