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Ulviyya Poladova

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A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz through the spring of 2027 could tip the UK economy into recession, AzerNEWS reports, citing The Daily Telegraph.

The report warns that if the conflict involving Iran continues, the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) could contract by 0.2% in 2027. Under this scenario, the first two quarters of 2027 would record negative economic growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

It was also noted that the economic slowdown could drive inflation higher.

Earlier, former UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the country's economic growth forecast for 2026 had been revised downward from 1.4% to 1.1%. She also projected that the UK economy would grow by 1.6% in 2027.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, holding significant strategic importance as approximately 20% of global oil supplies and around 25% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports pass through it. Essentially, it serves as an energy artery for countries in Asia, Europe, and even the United States.

The strait separates Iran from Oman, and in some areas, the width of the shipping channel is only two miles on each side. Given its critical role in global energy supply chains, ensuring the safety and security of this vital waterway is paramount for international trade and economic stability.