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Ulviyya Poladova

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Europe has imported jet fuel from the United States and Asia, increased processing volumes at its refineries, and used reserves to keep aircraft operating. However, it remains the region most vulnerable to renewed tensions in the Middle East, increasing the risk of further supply disruptionsm, AzerNEWS reports.

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany are particularly exposed to fuel shortages because decades of refinery closures have made them more dependent than other countries on supplies from the Middle East transported through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the consulting firm Energy Aspects, a report dated June 18 projected a supply shortfall of around 600,000 barrels per day in Europe during the third quarter. Meanwhile, the United States is expected to have a surplus of 116,000 barrels per day, while the Asia-Pacific region could see an excess supply of 425,000 barrels per day.

The company reported that, at the beginning of June, jet fuel inventories stood at 38 million barrels in Europe, compared with 99 million barrels in the United States. According to Reuters calculations, this means Europe has less than 30 days of jet fuel supply, making it the most constrained market among major aviation fuel producers.

The European Commission has also acknowledged that the situation could deteriorate further. In June, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said that aviation fuel reserves were expected to decline by the end of the summer holiday season and that Brussels would coordinate the release of national reserves if necessary.

Among the companies and countries increasing production to reduce the impact of the crisis, Italian refineries raised jet fuel output by 10% during the first four months of the year.

According to data from Italy’s fuel industry association UNEM, the country’s imports fell by 6%, allowing domestic production to meet around 70% of demand in March and April. Reuters reported that Italy, which accounts for roughly half of Europe’s jet fuel production capacity, has also increased output by importing semi-finished products from outside Europe.

At the same time, jet fuel prices in northwestern Europe have fallen from a record $215.32 per barrel reached at the end of March to around $133.27, easing pressure on airlines. Fuel typically accounts for 20% to 25% of airline operating costs.