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AzerNEWS Staff

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The TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) infrastructure project could provide a significant long-term boost to Armenia's economy, according to a new report by Fitch Ratings.

AzerNEWS reports that the international credit rating agency said that several major infrastructure investment projects, including TRIPP, have the potential to strengthen Armenia's long-term economic growth prospects.

"A number of large infrastructure investment projects, including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), could further enhance long-term economic growth prospects," Fitch said in its report.

Fitch analysts also noted that the U.S.-backed peace initiative between Armenia and Azerbaijan has substantially reduced the risk of military escalation in the near term. However, the agency cautioned that uncertainty remains over the successful completion of the peace process, including the possibility of a constitutional referendum in Armenia.

The report also warned that escalating diplomatic tensions with Russia continue to pose risks to Armenia's economy, particularly given the country's heavy reliance on Russian energy resources.

According to Fitch, Russia remains Armenia's largest trading partner and supplies more than 80 percent of the country's imported natural gas under preferential terms.

The agency noted that 35 percent of Armenia's exports are destined for Russia. In recent months, Moscow has imposed restrictions on the import and transit of Armenian food products and has threatened to suspend preferential energy supplies and halt trade in rough diamonds in response to Yerevan's policy of closer integration with the European Union.

Because natural gas accounts for 61 percent of Armenia's energy consumption, any disruption in supplies or increase in gas prices could negatively affect the country's macroeconomic performance, fiscal position, and external balances, Fitch said.

The agency forecasts that Armenia's average inflation rate will reach 4.4 percent in 2026 before gradually returning to the Central Bank of Armenia's 3 percent target.

Fitch noted that inflationary pressures had already begun to build before the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, driven by rising food prices, higher service costs, and increasing healthcare expenditures. At the same time, the agency believes that Russia's import restrictions could increase the domestic supply of certain goods, helping to ease inflationary pressures.

Fitch also expects the Central Bank of Armenia to temporarily raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent.

On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in the presence of the U.S. President, signed a joint declaration in Washington aimed at restoring regional connectivity. The document provides for the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, referred to in the agreement as the Trump Route, while the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia also initialed the Agreement on Peace and Interstate Relations.

Earlier, in January 2026, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Washington to unveil the framework for implementing the TRIPP project.

According to their joint statement, Armenia intends to approve and support the establishment of the TRIPP Development Company, which will oversee the implementation of the project. The company is expected to receive the right to develop and operate the project for an initial period of 49 years. Under the proposed ownership structure, Yerevan plans to offer 74 percent of the company's shares to Washington while retaining the remaining 26 percent.