EIA increases forecast for Azerbaijan’s oil production volume in 2021

By Ayya Lmahamad

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has increased its forecast for Azerbaijan’s average daily oil production for 2021.

In the report released in January, the agency increased its forecast by 10,000 barrels to 730,000 barrels of average daily oil production. It should be noted that according to the report published in December 2020, the agency forecasted daily oil production to be 720,000 barrels in 2021.

Moreover, the agency also increased its report of Azerbaijan’s daily oil production in 2020 from 700,000 barrels to 710,000 barrels.

Thus, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook report, average daily oil production in Azerbaijan was 770,000, 700,000, 670,000 and 690,000 barrels in the first, second, third and fourth quarters of 2020 respectively.

Meanwhile, average daily oil production is projected to be 700,000 barrels in the first quarter of 2021.

Additionally, the agency forecast for Azerbaijan’s daily oil production in 2022 to be 780,000 barrels.

In April 2020, OPEC and non-OPEC countries entered into an agreement on the reduction of daily oil production by 9.7 million barrels in May-June and 164,000 barrels for Azerbaijan.

On July 31, the first phase of the OPEC+ agreement of April 12 to reduce daily oil production by 9.7 million barrels was completed.

In the second phase of the agreement, covering the period from August 1 to December 31, the daily production of crude oil in OPEC+ countries will be reduced by 7.7 million barrels, which is 18 percent less than in October 2018.

At the 12th Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, it was decided to reduce the daily production of crude oil by 7.2 million barrels in January 2021 and to regulate the increase in daily production provided, that it does not exceed 0.5 million barrels, through monthly OPEC+ Ministerial Meetings. Azerbaijan’s commitment, according to the new “Declaration on Cooperation”, will be 123,000 barrels in January 2021. Thus, in January, Azerbaijan must increase daily oil production by 8,000 barrels and keep production at the level of 595,000 barrels.

Additionally, at the 13th Ministerial Meeting of the OPEC+ countries on January 5, it was decided to continue the existing quotas on daily crude oil production in February-March. Thus, Azerbaijan has the same commitments as in January for February-March.

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Ayya Lmahamad is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @AyyaLmahamad

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