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Qabil Ashirov

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The world’s demographic situation is changing rapidly, and for the first time in human history, the number of people aged 65 and over has surpassed the number of children under 5. This trend is especially noticeable in Europe and East Asia, in countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China. The population is also ageing rapidly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Africa, however, stands out from other regions with its high birth rate and young population.

This change is not accidental. Over the past few centuries, technological, medical, and economic developments in human society have led to people living longer and having fewer children.

At first glance, it may seem paradoxical that the number of older people in the world is outnumbering the number of children. According to statistics, never in human history have people lived as long as they do today, and the probability of children surviving has never been higher. However, these developments have become one of the reasons why people are having fewer children.

In the past, high infant mortality forced families to have more children. Due to diseases, hunger, malnutrition, and poor medical care, a significant number of children did not reach adulthood. Therefore, a large family was, in a sense, a biological and social security mechanism.

Today, the situation is completely different. As a result of the development of healthcare, nutrition, hygiene and technology, the probability of children surviving has increased dramatically. Parents no longer need to have as many children as before.

Research shows that at the same time, the economic cost of raising a child in modern society has also increased significantly. For example, if 100 years ago a child could start working as an apprentice to a master at a relatively early age, today a person needs to study for many years to build a good career. University, additional courses, foreign language, vocational training and other skills increase the investment in a child.

Thus, families are gradually moving from the “many children” model to the “fewer children, but more investment in each one” model.

This process also has a certain parallel with the reproductive strategy observed in nature. Fish can give birth to hundreds, even thousands of offspring, because there is no guarantee that most of them will survive. An elephant protects its offspring for a long time and spends a lot of resources on them, which is why it gives birth to fewer offspring. In human society, families have also been observed to reduce the number of children they have as the likelihood of survival of children and investment in them increases. Of course, human behavior cannot be explained by biology alone. Urbanization, increased participation of women in education and the labor market, the spread of contraception, the rise in the age of marriage, and changes in lifestyle also play an important role in the decline in the birth rate.

As a result, an interesting paradox has emerged: humanity is experiencing one of the most successful periods in history in terms of child survival and longevity, but it is precisely against the background of these developments that families are having fewer children.

Azerbaijan is not immune to this global demographic shift. The country's birth rate has declined significantly in recent years. While in 2015 there were 17.4 births per 1,000 people, this figure will drop to 10 in 2024 and to 8 in the first half of 2026. Although the population is still growing naturally, the growth rate is slowing. This trend suggests that in the long term, Azerbaijan is also moving towards an older population structure.

These changes will have both positive and negative sides. Having fewer children may allow families to devote more money and time to each child, and to invest more in education and human capital. A slowdown in population growth may, however, reduce the pressure on certain resources to some extent.

However, the main risk is related to the labor market. Children born today will enter the labor market in 20–25 years. If the number of young people decreases significantly during that period, the shrinking labor force could pose a problem for economic growth. At the same time, the decline in the number of working people could increase the burden on pension and healthcare systems.

Therefore, the world will be unable to ensure economic growth in the future by increasing the population and labor force alone. Increasing labor productivity, introducing automation, artificial intelligence and other technologies, as well as expanding labor market participation will become more important.

However, it is possible that the birth rate will increase again in the future. However, a more realistic scenario is not its return to previous high levels, but rather a partial recovery from very low levels. For example, the birth rate, which had decreased to 1.1–1.3 children, could increase to 1.6–1.8. State policies such as child benefits, tax breaks, housing and social support can also affect this process.

However, given the structural changes brought about by modern urban life, long-term education, and high child support costs, it is unlikely that the fertility rate will return to the high levels of 2.5–3 children.

As a result, the key issue now will not be simply maintaining population numbers, but building an economic and social system that is responsive to a changing age structure. Increasing productivity, strengthening investment in human capital, and adapting pension systems to the new demographic reality will be particularly important if fewer young people are to support more older people in the future. Demographic change may thus become not just a population issue but one of the key factors determining the future economic development of the world.