Caspian gas surges as global supply shocks deepen energy crunch [ANALYSIS]
Currently, sharp fluctuations in global energy prices, intensified by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasise the geopolitical importance of hydrocarbons. Besides, the surge in Azerbaijani oil prices, with one barrel recently reaching its highest level in years, reflects both the fragility of global energy supply chains and the enduring reliance on oil and gas. Despite growing interest in renewable energy, the world remains far from fully transitioning to alternatives, making the expansion of hydrocarbon reserves a strategic necessity.
Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan has accelerated work on the Absheron gas and condensate field, one of the Caspian Sea’s most promising energy sources. The Absheron-2 project represents the full-scale development phase, scheduled to begin in June-July this year, with first gas expected within three years. Forecasts suggest the field’s operational life will span three decades, providing a stable contribution to Azerbaijan’s energy balance. According to Environmental and Social Impact Assessment documents, gas production is expected to triple compared to the first stage.
Under Absheron-1, which began production on 10 July 2023, daily output stands at 4 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas and 13,000 barrels of condensate. The Absheron-2 project aims to raise production to 12.7 mcm of gas and 35,000 barrels of condensate per day. At peak, annual output is projected to reach 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas and over 2 million tonnes of condensate.
This scale of production will not only strengthen Azerbaijan’s domestic energy security but also enhance its role as a reliable supplier to Europe. With Azerbaijan already exporting gas to 16 countries, 10 of them EU members,the additional volumes from Absheron will diversify supply routes and reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
According to the technical plan, the Absheron-2 project will begin with the drilling of three subsea wells, with the option to add a fourth in the future. Modern subsea infrastructure will be installed on the seabed, complemented by offshore and onshore pipelines to ensure efficient transport. A key component of the project will be the construction of a Central Processing Facility near the Sangachal Terminal, which will integrate production into Azerbaijan’s broader energy network.
The project scope also includes the construction of offshore and onshore pipelines, including a 143-km subsea pipeline and two shorter underground pipelines connecting to the Southern Gas Corridor. In addition, a coastal gas-condensate terminal will be developed south of the Sangachal Oil and Gas Terminal.
According to analysts, drilling is scheduled to take place between 2027 and 2029, using the Karabakh semi-submersible rig, acquired by Caspian Drilling Company in 2024. Hydrocarbons will be transported via pipelines installed by the Israfil Huseynov vessel, ensuring direct integration into Azerbaijan’s export infrastructure.
Discovered in the 1960s, the Absheron field holds an estimated 350 bcm of gas, making it the second-largest in the Caspian after Shah Deniz. Development agreements have evolved over time: SOCAR and TotalEnergies signed the initial deal in 2009, and in August 2023, ADNOC acquired a 30% stake, leaving SOCAR and TotalEnergies with 35% each.
This diversified partnership highlights Azerbaijan’s strategy of engaging global energy majors to share risks and accelerate development. The Absheron-2 project is more than a technical expansion, it is a geopolitical instrument. By boosting production capacity, Azerbaijan enhances its bargaining power in energy diplomacy, particularly with the EU, which seeks secure alternatives amid ongoing global instability. The project also demonstrates Azerbaijan’s ability to balance domestic energy needs with export ambitions, ensuring long-term economic resilience.
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