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Ulviyya Poladova

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Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity are reshaping societies and placing increasing pressure on governments. As these challenges intensify, climate change is emerging as a key driver of political tensions, conflicts, and instability across the world.

While "climate change" refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, the forces driving these changes have shifted dramatically over the last two centuries.

Climate change can affect our health, ability to grow food, housing, safety and work. Some of us are already more vulnerable to climate impacts, such as people living in small island nations and other developing countries. Conditions like sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion have advanced to the point where entire communities have had to relocate, while protracted droughts are putting people at risk of famine. In the future, the number of people displaced by weather-related events is expected to rise.

Historically, shifts in the Earth’s climate were driven by natural phenomena. Changes in the sun’s intensity or massive volcanic eruptions have, in the past, caused the planet to warm or cool over long periods. However, since the 1800s - the dawn of the Industrial Revolution - human activities have overtaken natural cycles as the primary driver of global warming.

One of the most direct ways climate change affects political stability is through resource scarcity. Water shortages, declining agricultural productivity, and food insecurity create competition among communities and nations. In regions heavily dependent on agriculture, prolonged droughts or unpredictable weather can destroy livelihoods, leading to economic hardship and social unrest. Governments that fail to respond effectively risk losing public trust, which can result in protests, political crises, or even regime change.

Migration is another critical consequence of climate change with political implications. As certain areas become uninhabitable due to rising sea levels, desertification, or natural disasters, people are forced to relocate. This mass displacement can strain resources in receiving regions and lead to tensions between local populations and newcomers. In some cases, it may fuel nationalist sentiments, anti-immigration policies, and political polarization, particularly in already fragile states.

In countries with weak institutions, corruption, or ongoing conflicts, environmental stress can intensify instability. For example, competition over shrinking resources such as water or arable land can increase the likelihood of internal conflicts or even cross-border disputes.

Moreover, the economic impact of climate change can undermine political stability. Natural disasters damage infrastructure, disrupt trade, and require significant government spending on recovery and adaptation. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable, as they often lack the financial resources and institutional capacity to respond effectively. As economic conditions worsen, public dissatisfaction may grow, increasing the risk of political unrest.

One of the most significant global efforts to address climate change is the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), organized under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These summits bring together world leaders, scientists, and policymakers to negotiate strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate impacts.

A landmark moment in recent climate diplomacy was COP29, hosted in Baku in 2024. This conference placed a strong emphasis on climate finance, particularly the need to support developing countries that are disproportionately affected by climate change despite contributing the least to global emissions. One of the central debates revolved around increasing financial commitments from developed nations to help vulnerable countries invest in renewable energy, strengthen infrastructure, and build resilience against climate-related disasters.

As President Ilham Aliyev emphasized, during COP29, Azerbaijan made every effort to build bridges between developed and developing countries, reach consensus and turn COP29 into a success story.

COP29 also highlighted the growing link between climate action and political stability. Leaders acknowledged that without adequate funding and international cooperation, environmental challenges could exacerbate existing inequalities and trigger further instability, especially in regions already facing economic or political fragility. The discussions in Baku underscored the importance of not only mitigating climate change but also addressing its social and geopolitical consequences.

Another success of COP29 is the full implementation of article 6 of the Paris Agreement on International Carbon Markets. It should be emphasized that no progress has been made in this matter in 10 years.

Ultimately, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue - it is a defining political challenge of the 21st century.