Azernews.Az

Qabil Ashirov

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February - March 2026 will be remembered as the period when the tectonic plates of geopolitics shifted dramatically. In the north, Ukraine enters its fourth year of war, draining Russia’s economic and political resources. In the south, a large-scale military confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States erupted at the end of February, plunging the world into a new and uncertain reality. Between these two fires lies the South Caucasus, not merely a geographic label, but the very fulcrum of global survival.

From an analytical standpoint, the recent turmoil around Iran has paralysed arteries long considered the backbone of global trade: the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. With nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil shipments passing through these strategic waterways, their closure or the skyrocketing cost of insurance has forced international capital and logistics giants to seek urgent alternatives. Neither the sanctioned northern corridors through Russia nor the southern battlefields offer solutions. The only viable lifeline for global trade is the Middle Corridor through the South Caucasus. The more than 90 per cent surge in cargo volumes along this route in the first quarter of 2026 is not just a statistic, but it is a geopolitical cry for refuge.

In this landscape, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as an island of peace and stability amid bloody conflicts. Reconstruction in liberated territories, with most of the national investment directed toward construction, reflects not only confidence in the country’s future but also its claim to regional leadership. The fact that January alone saw 1.4 billion manats invested in logistics infrastructure and green energy projects is no coincidence. It is a message to the world: Europe’s energy security now depends on cables laid beneath the Caspian and gas exports targeted to reach 26 billion cubic meters annually.

Besides, the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has reached a decisive stage. A lasting settlement would reverberate far beyond the two nations. Once a peace agreement is signed, the South Caucasus will transform from a “risk zone” into a “high-yield hub” for global investors. Forecasts suggest that if military rhetoric gives way to economic dialogue, foreign direct investment could surpass $10 billion within two years. The sharp reduction of defence spending, currently consuming one-fifth of both countries’ budgets, would free resources for technology, education, and the digital economy. This could mark the birth of a new “Caucasian Tiger” model.

However, every day of delayed peace raises the risk of the region being consumed by the fires to the north and south by as much as 80 per cent. We stand at a rare historical crossroads: either we unite through the chain of economic interests and become a central hub of the global order, or we remain prisoners of old enmities and risk becoming part of the surrounding conflagration. Azerbaijan’s firm stance and its proposed platforms for economic cooperation are not just lifelines for its own people, but also for Armenia and the wider region.

The geopolitical lesson of 2026 is clear: economics is no longer the consequence of politics, but it is its architect. If we fail to build this architecture wisely, the cold and hot winds of war from north and south could collapse our house. The strategic power of the Middle Corridor and the economic potential of the Zangazur route create a new reality. In this reality, peace is not a lofty wish but the insurance policy for billions of dollars, millions of tons of cargo, and most importantly, millions of human lives. The day a peace treaty is signed, the South Caucasus will cease to be a conflict zone and will instead be recognised as a beacon of progress.

Time waits for nobody, and history’s window will not remain open forever. The choice before us is no longer about emotions, but about cold numbers and deep strategic analysis. The prosperity that peace promises is infinitely cheaper and more valuable than the chaos that war guarantees.