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Qabil Ashirov

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The South Caucasus region is currently undergoing one of the most fateful and complex periods of transformation in its modern history. Decades of entrenched tension, military confrontation, and deep-seated mistrust are finally beginning to give way to a sense of cautious optimism and tangible prospects for peace. More specifically, the prospect of a definitive peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia has never appeared as attainable as it does today. When examining the milestones achieved over the past few years, it becomes evident that many developments, once dismissed as mere utopian dreams, have now crystallized into daily realities.

Currently, the most significant achievement is that the guns have fallen silent on the front lines. This silence signifies the beginning of a process to overcome the psychological barriers essential for future cooperation.

Secondly, significant progress is being observed on the economic and logistical fronts. Limited but functional commercial ties have begun to emerge. The transit of certain Russian and Kazakh products destined for Armenia through Azerbaijani territory, as well as Azerbaijan’s export of fuel to Armenia, serves as a striking example of this emerging landscape. Furthermore, the utilization of Armenian airspace by Azerbaijani civil aviation indicates that the regional transport blockade is gradually being dismantled.

The rapprochement between these two nations is manifesting itself not only through official diplomatic channels but also within humanitarian and social dimensions. Notably, the regular exchange of visits between non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society representatives over the last few years is a remarkable development. Visits by Azerbaijani representatives to Yerevan and Armenian delegates to Baku represent courageous steps toward dismantling the hostile stereotypes that have accumulated over decades.

Undoubtedly, the culmination of these positive developments was the diplomatic messages and video addresses presented during the 8th European Political Community Summit held in Yerevan this past May. This event confirmed that the normalization process has entered a phase that is now recognized and supported on an international scale.

Nevertheless, despite this progress, a fundamental issue remains: a final peace treaty has yet to be signed. As a primary condition, the Azerbaijani side demands the removal of clauses in the Armenian constitution that contain territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Official Baku maintains that a peace treaty must not remain merely on paper but must also eliminate any legal avenues for future revanchist ideologies.

It must be acknowledged that the protracted conflict dealt a devastating blow to the region’s development and economic potential. It is the collective desire of all stakeholders to finally relegate this conflict to the "dusty shelves of history." Today, the central question remains: When will the peace be signed? Optimistic analysts suggest that following the internal political processes in Armenia, peace could be achieved by the end of this year or early next year. Skeptics, however, point to unresolved contradictions, predicting a longer timeline.

Given the urgency of this topic, Azernews has sought the insights of the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, the seasoned diplomat Tofiq Zulfugarov.

The former Minister noted that it is difficult to say this in advance. However, we must understand that after these parliamentary elections, everyone — including in Azerbaijan — expects that a referendum will eventually be held in Armenia.

“This will not be easy for Pashinyan, because constitutional amendments would have to be introduced through such a referendum. In any case, we should observe these developments step by step. I do not believe this will happen immediately,” Tofiq Zulfugarov said.

At the same time, the former top diplomat underscored that it is essential to pay attention to some of the remarks made by the president in Zangilan.

“The president particularly emphasized that we are the initiators of the peace agenda. One of the key elements of that initiative is that Armenia must complete its “homework.” This position was reaffirmed once again in Zangilan.

I believe that if Pashinyan has the political will, he will proceed with the referendum. If he does not, the signing of an agreement is not expected. Azerbaijan is not going to retreat from this position

As I mentioned before, a significant message was delivered in Zangilan. As the president noted, this is not only an East-West corridor, but also a North-South corridor. This means the project should also serve the interests of both Russia and Iran.

Finally, I would like to emphasize that the timing and location where these statements were made are extremely important,” Tofiq Zulfugarov concluded.