Local elections give outline of Turkish political life with surprising results
By Prof. Dr. Mahmut Hakkı Akın / Istanbul Culture University Faculty Member
The fact that a society, the majority of whose population lives in metropolitan cities, turns to two powerful parties representing two poles is a situation that can be followed for a long time. As a pole of power in CHP's success, especially in metropolitan cities, the DEM Party and its effect on attracting the AK Party opposition voters, especially the İyi Party voters, should not be ignored.
The March 31, 2024, local election, held last Sunday, seems to have taken its place in Turkish political life with its surprising results. Although not a year has passed since the general and presidential elections were held simultaneously, the fact that the Justice and Development Party lost significant votes in many municipalities that it had governed for many years and in all provinces of Turkiye, except for a few provinces, has caused general surprise. Because this election was entered with the atmosphere created by the election on May 14, 2023. It can be said that the election results were a surprise for the Republican People's Party, which experienced a significant increase in its votes.
Although there were some local effects in the local elections held in the 1960s and 1970s, results similar to those seen in the general elections emerged. However, some local elections in Turkish political history have also given signs of a change in the political structure. In this regard, the 1989 and 1994 local elections stand out as two critical elections. The 1989 election was an important turning point in the process of ANAP moving away from power, shrinking in the 1990s and disappearing from the political scene in the early 2000s. Although the Social Democratic Populist Party (SHP), which is considered the heir of the Republican People's Party that was closed down after September 12, achieved great success in the 1989 local elections, it paid a heavy price for its failure in local governments in the 1991 general and 1994 local elections. SHP could not take advantage of the great opportunity it had. The 1994 local elections, in which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, resulted in the great success of the Welfare Party and became an important turning point in recent politics. The success of the local elections in 1994 is central to the rise of the National Vision Movement in the 1990s and the success of the AK Party in the 2000s.
After the election results began to be announced on the evening of March 31 and the general picture was formed, there were people on television and on social media making references to the 1989 election. “Is this election similar to the 1989 election?” and “Is the fate of the Motherland Party awaiting the AK Party?” Questions that can be expressed as follows have been expressed. Of course, there are some important differences in the social and political structure of Turkey in 1989 compared to today. In those years, the relationship between bureaucracy and civil politics in Turkey was very different from today. In addition, there was a current political environment in which old and master politicians such as Süleyman Demirel, Bülent Ecevit, Necmettin Erbakan, and Alparslan Türkeş were the actors. However, the most important reason for the election results in 1989 was the economy, especially the failure to reduce inflation. Problems such as economic bottleneck, inflation, and the decrease in the purchasing power of retirees have led to similarities between this election and the 1989 election.
According to the results of the March 31 election, it cannot be said exactly that the AK Party is in the same situation as the ANAP in 1989. Based on this determination, it cannot be said that the SHP of 1989 is the CHP of today. First of all, the number of votes and municipalities lost by the ANAP is incomparably higher than that of the AK Party. The fact that a society, the majority of whose population lives in metropolitan cities, turns to two powerful parties representing two poles is a situation that can be followed for a long time. As a pole of power in the CHP's success, especially in metropolitan cities, the DEM Party and its effect on attracting AK Party opposition voters, especially İyi Party voters, should not be ignored.
In the 1980s and 1990s, there were many strong party alternatives for voters. In this election, the possibility of votes turning towards the New Welfare Party (YRP) as a reaction against the AK Party was frequently mentioned before the election. The votes received by YRP had effects that changed the election results in some provinces and districts. Although this effect was not very large in metropolitan cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, Antalya, and Adana, YRP emerged successful in the elections. It has been observed that the Saadet Party, the Deva Party, and the Future Party, which appeal to similar social bases, are considered different from the YRP by conservative voters and cannot be an alternative to the AK Party. It has been experienced once again that historical and social reality has a memory and that this memory is the source of political positions and the distances associated with these positions. It is possible to say that voters who sympathise with the AK Party but vote for another party or do not go to the polls also ignore those who act contrary to their historical and political reality. Just as the CHP was able to get votes from different social segments as a pole of power in metropolitan cities, the AK Party, which changed Turkish political history as the real master of this business, could not maintain its attractive effect even though it was a strong pole. Despite everything, it should be taken into consideration that voters distinguish between general and local elections.
The fact that the AK Party, which managed to get nearly 50 percent of the votes in the 2011 and 2015 elections without being involved in any alliance, lost votes in the last election can also be interpreted as a distinction between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party in its political base. The AK Party's vote rate also showed a downward trend in the general elections. In fact, in the 2023 general elections, it reached the 35 percent level again, where it was in power in 2002. However, in the 2014, 2018, and 2023 presidential elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan preserved his votes and managed to get more votes than his party. For this reason, the reaction to the AK Party changed the balance of power in local elections and led to the decline of the party's dominance in local politics.
It is necessary for political parties to analyse the shock experienced in the election for their own future. In politics, shocks can also be experienced in different doses. It may be remembered that after the Democratic Left Party became the first party in Turkey with 22 percent of the votes in 1999, it received 1 percent of the votes in 2002. Politics is always open to versatile influences and fluctuations depending on different factors. Moreover, politics has to turn to the future. “His political life is now over.” Many so-called politicians later became alternatives for voters again. However, it is vital that some signs be interpreted in a healthy way that is directly in line with historical and social reality.
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