S&P changes GDP growth forecast on Azerbaijan
By Nigar Abbasova
Standard & Poor's, a leading U.S. financial services company, has revised its outlook on the GDP growth in Azerbaijan.
Analysts of the Agency expect the GDP growth rate to stand at 0.8 percent in 2017, while the forecast for 2018 and 2019 is 3 and 4 percent respectively. The previous forecast was at the level of 2 percent in 2017 while the forecast for 2018 and 2019 stood at 4 and 4.5 percent respectively.
The analysts of the company expect that the country's GDP will amount to 59 billion manats ($38 billion) in 2016, 64 billion manats ($41 billion) in 2017, 71 billion manats ($45 billion) in 2018 and 77 billion manats ($49 billion) in 2019.
The current account deficit of Azerbaijan will amount to 0.5 percent of GDP in 2016, but starting from 2017, the current operations account of Azerbaijan will be back in surplus, according to analysts of the company. The surplus of Azerbaijan’s current account operations in 2017 will amount to 0.6 percent of GDP, in 2018 - 1.4 percent of GDP and in 2019 - 1.9 percent of GDP, according to the analysts of the S&P.
The GDP per capita in Azerbaijan will also grow. It is expected to amount to $3,900 in 2016, $4,200 in 2017, $4,600 in 2018 and $4,900 in 2019, according to forecasts of the company. The unemployment rate in the country will gradually decline, and will drop from 5.5 percent in 2016 to five percent in 2019, according to the report.
Earlier, Standard & Poor’s cut credit rating of Azerbaijan and predicted its economy would contract this year for the first time in two decades. S&P said the move was based on the sharp fall in oil prices and increasing number of external risks.
Standard & Poor's credit rating for Azerbaijan currently stands at BB+ with stable outlook.
Earlier, Finance Minister Samir Sharifov said that the country faces no problem with the execution of the state budget and do not expect any problems to appear in the future with regards to the fulfillment of the state budget in 2016.
Public budget revenues in 2016 are expected to reach 16,822 billion manats ($11.202 billion), while the rate of expenditures will amount to 18.495 billion manats ($12.316 billion). The budget deficit is expected to be at the level of 1.673 million manats ($ 1.109 million) which stands for 2.9 percent of the GDP. The forecast is based on an average oil price which amounts to $25 a barrel.
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Nigar Abbasova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @nigyar_abbasova
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