OPEC revises forecasts for Kazakhstan’s oil production
By Aynur Jafarova
OPEC has slightly decreased its earlier estimation of
Kazakhstan’s oil production for 2014, 2015 and 2016, OPEC's newly
published World Oil Outlook 2014 report said.
Kazakhstan's oil and NGL production is now forecasted to remain at
the level of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2014, 2015 and
2016 as it was in 2013 with an increase to 1.9 million bpd in 2017,
2018 and 2019 in the reference case.
Last year, OPEC forecasted that Kazakhstan's oil and NGL production
will increase to 1.7 million bpd in 2014, to 1.8 million bpd in
2015 and to 1.9 million bpd in 2016-2018.
“The supply growth over the medium-term will mainly come from
Kashagan (Phase 1), the Tengiz expansion, and the Akote and
Fedorovskiy blocks,” the report said.
OPEC also noted Kazakhstan’s production comes mainly from five
onshore fields – Tengiz, Karachaganak, Aktobe, Mangistau, and Uzen
– and two offshore fields – Kashagan and Kurmangazy (both located
in the Caspian Sea). Tengiz and Karachaganak produce about 50
percent of Kazakhstan’s total production.
Oil production in the Kashagan field started on September 11, 2013.
However, operations had to be stopped on September 24 due to a gas
leak in the onshore section of the gas pipeline running from Island
D to the Bolashak onshore processing facility.
“As a result, Kazakhstan exhibits slower growth in this year’s
medium-term Reference Case compared to last year’s Outlook,” OPEC
said.
In the long term, OPEC forecasts that oil and NGL production will
continue to grow. Production of oil and NGL will increase to 1.9
million bpd in 2020, to 2.2 million bpd in 2025, to 2.6 million bpd
in 2030, to 2.9 million bpd in 2035 and to 3 million bpd in 2040 in
the reference case.
Kazakhstan, one of the five Central Asian countries, is rich with hydrocarbon reserves.
The recoverable oil reserves of Kashagan field are estimated at
11 billion barrels, whereas total geological raw material reserves
stand at 35 billion barrels. Besides, natural gas reserves are
estimated at over 1 trillion cubic meters.
The Tengiz oil field is one of the deepest and largest oil fields
in the world. Reserves of the deposit are estimated at 750 million
to 1.1 billion tons (6-9 billion barrels) of recoverable oil.
Karachaganak is one of the world's largest fields. Its oil reserves
amount to 1.2 billion tons. Meanwhile, those of natural gas are
1.35 trillion cubic meters.
The oil production in Kazakhstan amounted to 81.7 million tons in 2013 which is 3.2 percent more than 2012. The forecasts show that after 2020 around two million barrels of oil will be produced in Kazakhstan per day. The country plans to produce 83 million tons of oil, 41 billion cubic meters of gas, as well as to process 14.7 million tons of oil in 2014.