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Qabil Ashirov

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Bitcoin’s surge above $80,000 is once again forcing investors to ask a familiar question: is cryptocurrency entering another major bull market, or are markets simply witnessing another powerful but temporary rally?

The answer may lie less in Bitcoin itself than in what is happening across global financial markets.

Bitcoin has risen sharply in recent days, gaining more than 20% over three days and recording its strongest three-day rally since 2023. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds also attracted approximately $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, their strongest weekly result since October 2025. These figures suggest that the latest move is not being driven solely by retail speculation. Institutional money is returning to the asset in meaningful amounts.

Yet the most interesting part of the story may be the connection between Bitcoin and the U.S. Treasury market.

The U.S. Treasury recently announced that it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for long-term government bonds, increasing them from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The purchases will focus on securities with maturities of between 10 and 30 years. The decision came after a sharp sell-off in long-duration Treasuries pushed the 30-year yield to its highest level since 2007.

Technically, this is not quantitative easing. The Treasury is not creating money to purchase assets in the way the Federal Reserve does under QE. The program is primarily designed to improve liquidity and manage the composition of government debt. Nevertheless, financial markets interpreted the announcement as a signal that Washington is increasingly concerned about high long-term borrowing costs.

That interpretation matters for Bitcoin.

When government bond yields rise, investors have a stronger incentive to keep money in relatively safe, income-producing assets. Bitcoin, which does not generate an interest payment simply by being held, must compete with those yields for investment capital. When long-term yields decline, that competition becomes somewhat less intense, and investors may become more willing to move further up the risk curve.

This is one reason the Treasury announcement had such an immediate impact on financial markets. The announcement helped push long-term yields lower and contributed to a broader increase in demand for riskier assets. Bitcoin was one of the clearest beneficiaries, while gold also rallied.

But there is another important factor: positioning.

Bitcoin had spent a considerable period under pressure before the latest rally. As a result, many traders were positioned for further declines. When prices suddenly moved higher, short sellers were forced to close their positions, creating additional buying pressure. More than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions were reportedly liquidated during the sharp move. In other words, part of Bitcoin’s rally was probably mechanical: rising prices forced traders who had bet against Bitcoin to buy it back.

That does not make the rally meaningless. It simply means that investors should be careful when interpreting its speed.

The strongest argument in favor of a sustainable recovery is the return of institutional demand. The $1.92 billion weekly inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs is significant because these products have fundamentally changed the way large investors can gain exposure to cryptocurrency. An investor no longer needs to manage a crypto wallet or use a cryptocurrency exchange directly. Bitcoin exposure can now be obtained through a conventional financial product.

This makes institutional participation easier and potentially more durable.

At the same time, investors should not confuse a powerful rally with a confirmed new bull market. The fundamental concerns that existed before the rally have not disappeared overnight. U.S. fiscal deficits remain enormous, inflation remains a concern, and long-term Treasury yields remain relatively high. The Treasury buyback program may temporarily improve liquidity, but it does not eliminate the underlying supply of government debt or solve the structural fiscal challenges facing Washington.

That is perhaps the most important lesson from Bitcoin’s latest move. Cryptocurrency is increasingly behaving not as an isolated financial experiment, but as part of the broader global liquidity and risk cycle.

When liquidity improves, yields fall and investors become more comfortable with risk, Bitcoin can benefit disproportionately. When financial conditions tighten, the same characteristic can work in the opposite direction.

Therefore, the question is not simply whether Bitcoin can remain above $80,000. The more important question is whether the broader financial environment can continue supporting demand for risk assets.

If institutional inflows remain strong and long-term yields continue to moderate, Bitcoin’s latest rally could develop into something considerably larger. If those conditions fade, however, the recent surge could prove to be another spectacular episode in an asset class famous for spectacular reversals.

Bitcoin may have crossed $80,000, but the real test has only begun: whether this is the beginning of a new cycle or merely another reminder that in financial markets, momentum can arrive long before certainty.