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Nazrin Abdul

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Oil prices are set for a sharp upside risk as geopolitical tensions intensify, with analysts at BMI forecasting that Brent Crude could climb to $110–$130 per barrel in the near term, and potentially reach $150 or higher if the Middle East conflict persists, AzerNEWS reports.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, Brent prices have already surged by more than 50%, with forward contracts trading above $109 per barrel, highlighting mounting pressure in global energy markets.

According to BMI, the price rally is driven by escalating attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, raising concerns over sustained supply disruptions. Analysts note that investors remain highly sensitive to any threats to oil flows, which could delay post-conflict market stabilization.

Although Brent traded within the $90–$110 range over the past two weeks, BMI believes this band is unlikely to hold. “If the conflict continues, we expect a sustained move into the $110–$130 range within one to two weeks,” the report states.

In the longer term, BMI maintains its baseline forecast for Brent at $70 per barrel for 2026 but signals a potential upward revision to $75–$82. This adjustment reflects a shift in expectations, from a short-lived conflict scenario of up to four weeks to a more prolonged one that could extend to eight weeks or beyond.

A key pressure point remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day flowed prior to the conflict. While mitigation measures, such as rerouting supplies via the Red Sea, utilizing strategic reserves, partial easing of sanctions on Russia, and modest demand reductions, have helped, significant supply shortfalls persist.

BMI estimates that daily disruptions could range between 7.5 million and 15 million barrels during the conflict. “Market impact will accumulate over time, while physical dislocations intensify,” the report notes.

The outlook remains highly volatile, with several upside risks that could push prices beyond $130 per barrel. These include further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions in the Red Sea or key export hubs such as Yanbu, and potential attacks on major oil production and export infrastructure in Iran and other Gulf states.