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Qabil Ashirov

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Global oil prices could surge in 2026 as supply risks intensify in the Persian Gulf, AzerNEWS reports, citing Goldman Sachs.

Citing potential disruptions to fuel shipments from the region, the bank has revised its price forecasts upward for both Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $85 per barrel in 2026, up from its previous estimate of $77. Meanwhile, WTI is projected to average $79 per barrel, compared to an earlier forecast of $72.

The revised outlook is largely driven by concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that oil shipments through the strait could fall to just 5% of normal volumes for up to six weeks before gradually recovering over the following month. Such a disruption could result in a loss of approximately 800 million barrels to the global market.

Geopolitical tensions have further heightened market uncertainty. On March 22, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Washington could launch strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure if Tehran fails to restore shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

Amid these risks, Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude prices could average around $110 per barrel in March and April, with the potential to spike as high as $135 under extreme supply constraints.

The bank also estimates that oil production in the Middle East could decline by as much as 11 million barrels per day. In a worst-case scenario, analysts warn that the global supply deficit could widen to 17 million barrels per day, putting further upward pressure on prices.

The outlook underscores the vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in key transit routes, with significant implications for inflation, energy security, and economic stability worldwide.