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Ulviyya Poladova

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After years of quiet, enlargement is back at the center of the European agenda. The European Commission is preparing accession roadmaps for Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova, promising to speed up negotiations and even reworking its own internal rules for a future with more members. The question worth asking is this: why does a Union that spent years admitting newcomers without any hurry suddenly need this now?

The main reason, experts argue, is security. The start of the war in Ukraine forced the EU to rethink absolutely everything, and it even changed the way the bloc sees things. Enlargement used to be presented as a reward for reforms and gradual alignment with European standards. Now it's seen as a way to strengthen the bloc's borders. Think tanks call it outright a "protective shield" for the eastern and southeastern frontiers. In a draft of a Commission document, the wording leaves no doubt: enlargement remains a "geopolitical imperative." Taking in new members has become a question of strategic resilience. Thus, the EU wants to reinforce its eastern phalanx. It's worth noting that, at the moment, the core of the eastern flank is made up of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, Romania and Bulgaria. All of these countries hold not entirely pleasant feelings toward Russia and associate themselves more with the West.

Another reason for the EU's quick decisions is its changing relationship with the United States. Against the backdrop of tension with Washington, Brussels increasingly looks at the like-minded democracies on its own borders as a natural support. If the old transatlantic alliance is cracking, Europe needs to rally its neighbors around its own center.

The factor of time and competition shouldn't be forgotten either. Within the EU there's a fear that a process dragged out over decades works against the Union itself. The longer a candidate waits at the threshold, the higher the risk of disillusionment inside the country, and the more actively the competitors move. Russia and China, and in the Balkans partly other outside players too, are interested in keeping these states outside the European orbit. If the EU doesn't secure its position, someone else will fill the vacuum that forms.

Why exactly these four?

Montenegro is the most advanced candidate and is widely seen as the country closest to membership. Podgorica has set a target of joining the EU by 2028, while almost all negotiating chapters have been opened. The country also has significant potential in mineral resources, giving it additional strategic relevance.

Albania is also moving rapidly through the accession process and has been making progress in closing negotiating clusters. Experts point to Tirana's close alignment with Brussels on foreign policy and its strong political commitment to domestic reforms as major factors behind the pace of negotiations.

Ukraine and Moldova received candidate status after the outbreak of the war. Both held negotiating conferences in July 2026, and there is clear political support for moving their accession processes forward.

At the same time, it matters who was NOT included in the list. Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina remain at an earlier stage. And Georgia, Türkiye and Serbia are essentially "frozen." In other words, what the EU needs right now are countries that must necessarily be strong and rich, precisely in order to close certain gaps.

There's also the other side, which Brussels doesn't stay silent about. Enlargement carries risks for the Union itself. The experience of Hungary under former PM Victor Orbán, when one member spent years vetoing sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine, made people think about safeguards. That's why a revision of the internal rules is being prepared in parallel. The EU wants both to admit new members and to protect itself from the paralysis they might bring.

Adding it all up, the picture looks like this. The European Union is expanding not because it became more generous, but because the world around it changed. The war in the eastern part of the continent and the uncertainty in relations with its former overseas ally turned the admission of new members from a question of values into a question of survival. Enlargement became a way for Europe to strengthen its own position at a moment when its old supports stopped seeming reliable. And that's exactly why Brussels, after so many years of taking its time, suddenly started talking about deadlines.

Even so, one of the candidates will definitely enter the EU by 2030. The five-year term wasn't set by chance: in 2029 the mandates of Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas come to an end. For both of them it's important to show a concrete result, and they may well present it in the form of the Union's enlargement.

It also shouldn't be overlooked that enlargement changes not only the number of states inside the Union, but the very system of decision-making. The more members there are, the harder it is to agree on common policy, distribute budget resources, and maintain a unified approach to foreign affairs, security and the economy. Each country offers its own options, and they don't always match the notions of other states. Again, as in the case of Hungary's veto.

Europe really has changed over the last five years. Now the EU's attitude toward its own borders is changing too. But how far Brussels is ready to go, and whether political necessity can turn into real enlargement, will become one of the main questions of European politics in the coming years.