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AzerNEWS Staff

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A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change has found that global temperatures are approaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with every region of the world already close to its expected level of warming.

Researchers found that by 2025, between 90% and 94% of projected regional warming at the 1.5°C global warming threshold had already materialized. They also found that between 65% and 76% of the projected warming associated with the 2°C threshold had occurred.

The findings cover all 46 land regions assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers examined temperature changes since 1850–1900, including areas where historical weather records are limited.

The study estimates that the Russian Arctic has experienced the most significant warming, with temperatures rising 3.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Northeastern North America has warmed by 2.6°C, while the northwestern part of the continent has recorded a 2.4°C increase.

Tropical land regions, including much of Africa, have experienced warming ranging from 1.1°C to 1.8°C. Regions dominated by oceans have generally recorded smaller increases of around 1°C.

Researchers concluded that almost all observed regional warming is attributable to human activity, with greenhouse gas emissions identified as the primary driver. Other human-related factors, particularly aerosols, have partially offset the warming effect.

The study also highlights that the world could reach the 1.5°C global warming threshold by 2029. Under a high-emissions scenario, the 2°C threshold could be reached by 2042.

Scientists noted that although the extent of warming varies from one region to another, progress towards global warming thresholds is remarkably consistent. They also found a high level of confidence in regional warming projections, including in parts of Africa where historical temperature records remain limited.

This confidence is partly explained by the fact that tropical regions experience less natural year-to-year temperature variability.