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Qabil Ashirov

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The peace agenda between Azerbaijan and Armenia is gradually expanding beyond political and security arrangements towards broader regional cooperation. Over the past six years, the two countries have made significant progress in addressing the consequences of their decades-long conflict. The November 12 meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Dublin, where the leaders welcomed the establishment of working groups on transboundary river management, represents another important development in this process. The initiative carries particular significance for Azerbaijan, whose water security depends considerably on rivers originating beyond its borders.

As is known, Armenia's irredentist policies led to nearly three decades of occupation of Azerbaijan's internationally recognised territories, including Karabakh and seven surrounding districts. Unfortunately, the humanitarian tragedy caused by the Karabakh conflict was so overwhelming that it overshadowed the conflict's environmental and economic side effects.

One of the most significant examples was the management of the Sarsang Reservoir on the Tartar River. During the occupation, the reservoir and key sections of the downstream irrigation canal system remained under Armenian control, while Azerbaijani farmers in the downstream districts depended on water from this infrastructure to irrigate their fields.

According to a report prepared for the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), water releases from Sarsang were largely concentrated in autumn and winter, while the flow was reduced during spring and summer, precisely when agricultural demand was at its peak. This left farmers in Tartar, Aghdam, Barda, Goranboy, Yevlakh and Aghjabadi facing acute irrigation shortages. The report estimated that around 100,000 hectares of agricultural land in the affected border regions were under severe water stress.

The issue was formally addressed by PACE in Resolution 2085, adopted in January 2016. The Assembly called for international supervision of the reservoir, irrigation canals and seasonal water-release schedules, and urged the Armenian authorities to cease using water resources as instruments of political influence or pressure. For Azerbaijan, however, the problem extended beyond Sarsang and the Tartar River.

During the occupation, Azerbaijani communities also lost access to other important rivers and water infrastructure originating in the formerly occupied territories, including the Hakari, Bazarchay and Khachinchay river systems. Azerbaijan repeatedly raised concerns about the restrictions on its access to these resources, arguing that the loss of control over upstream water sources undermined irrigation, agricultural production and the economic prospects of downstream districts. President Ilham Aliyev drew attention to these issues on several occasions, including in 2020, when he highlighted how the control of the Sarsang and Sugovushan reservoirs had deprived Azerbaijani farmers of Tartar River water during the summer months.

Azerbaijan's restoration of sovereignty over Karabakh fundamentally changed this situation. The Sarsang and Sugovushan reservoirs, along with other water infrastructure in the liberated territories, are now under Azerbaijani control. This has enabled the country to restore the use of these resources for irrigation and regional development, including the regulation of water flows in the Tartar River.

However, water-related challenges between the two countries extend beyond the historical management of reservoirs. Pollution of transboundary rivers represents another serious concern, particularly for Azerbaijan as a downstream country.

The Araz River, Azerbaijan's second-largest river and one of the principal sources of water for agriculture and regional ecosystems, illustrates the scale of this challenge. Its basin receives water from several countries, including Armenia, and is exposed to industrial, mining and municipal pollution. Research published by Azerbaijani scientists in December 2020 highlighted contamination in the Araz basin associated with mining operations in Armenia's Syunik region. According to the researchers, industrial waste from mining facilities in Armenia’s several regions entered the river system through its tributaries, particularly the Okhchuchay. Their findings indicated that copper concentrations in certain samples had reached 25–50 times permissible levels, while phenol concentrations were reported at six to fifteen times the applicable limits.

The Okhchuchay became one of the clearest examples of the environmental consequences of inadequate industrial wastewater management. Originating in the Zangezur Mountains, the 83-kilometre river crosses into Azerbaijan's Zangilan district before joining the Araz. Its waters have been affected by industrial and municipal wastewater associated with the Kajaran copper-molybdenum complex and mining operations around Kapan.

In early 2021, Azerbaijan's environmental monitoring authorities reported elevated concentrations of heavy metals, including cadmium, lead, nickel, iron, molybdenum and zinc, in water and sediment samples. Authorities also reported episodes of fish mortality and deterioration in the river's ecological condition. In July 2021, Azerbaijani environmental and youth organisations brought the issue to the attention of international institutions, arguing that the pollution threatened aquatic biodiversity, local communities and the wider Araz River ecosystem. Azerbaijan subsequently continued raising the matter through diplomatic channels. In 2023, the Prosecutor General's Office also appealed to international partners regarding pollution affecting the Araz and Okhchuchay rivers.

The United Nations Environment Programme's 2022 assessment examined information provided by Azerbaijan concerning the Okhchuchay. Although its experts did not observe visible pollution during their field visit and did not independently collect water samples, the assessment acknowledged the reported contamination incidents, elevated heavy-metal concentrations in the submitted laboratory results and potential risks to the river's ecosystem. This demonstrates why regular, transparent and jointly conducted monitoring is essential.

The strategic importance of these issues becomes even clearer when considering Azerbaijan's geographical position. Approximately 70 percent of the country's surface water resources originate outside its territory. Consequently, the quality and availability of water entering Azerbaijan depend significantly on environmental and water-management policies in neighbouring countries. Climate change, rising agricultural demand, industrial development and increasingly irregular precipitation patterns are intensifying pressure on regional water resources. Over the coming decades, access to reliable freshwater supplies could become one of the defining economic and geopolitical challenges of the South Caucasus.

Against this background, the Dublin initiative deserves particular attention. The establishment of working groups on transboundary river management offers an opportunity to address problems that have remained unresolved for decades. Their mandate should ideally extend beyond monitoring pollution to include regular exchanges of hydrological data, water-quality assessments, coordination of reservoir operations and information-sharing concerning seasonal river flows. Such mechanisms would help prevent industrial contamination, identify potential environmental risks at an early stage and protect the interests of downstream communities.

For Azerbaijan, the initiative also represents an opportunity to consolidate the achievements of its restored sovereignty through a more comprehensive approach to national security. President Ilham Aliyev's policy of restoring territorial integrity has fundamentally changed the country's ability to manage its own water infrastructure. The next strategic priority is ensuring that resources originating beyond Azerbaijan's borders are managed according to transparent and mutually recognised principles. This would strengthen agricultural resilience, protect biodiversity and reduce the possibility of water-related tensions.

Ultimately, the significance of the Dublin understanding extends beyond environmental protection. It introduces water security into the broader architecture of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations, recognising that lasting peace requires practical arrangements in areas that directly affect people's everyday lives. The experience of the past three decades has demonstrated the economic and ecological costs of politicising water resources. Establishing effective cooperation mechanisms now could help prevent similar problems in the future.

For a region that has experienced decades of conflict, the responsible management of shared rivers could become one of the most tangible measures of whether political progress is translating into lasting stability. Azerbaijan has a clear interest in ensuring that this process produces measurable results, with environmental responsibility and downstream water security placed at its centre.