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Qabil Ashirov

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A new opinion poll has shed light on the political landscape ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election, showing left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon securing more than 20% voter support, while European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde narrowly edges former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe as a potential centrist candidate.

The survey was conducted by the Cluster17 polling institute for Politico.

Marine Le Pen, who currently leads the National Rally (Rassemblement National – RN), tops the poll with 30.5% support. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder of the left-wing France Unbowed (La France Insoumise – LFI) movement, ranks second with 20.5%.

In this electoral scenario, Lagarde receives the backing of 14% of respondents, slightly ahead of Philippe, who attracts 13.5%.

Other political figures also feature in the poll. David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes, secures up to 10% support in certain electoral scenarios, while Bruno Retailleau, leader of the Republicans (Les Républicains), receives 5%.

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal commands 11% support in a scenario in which he represents the centrist political camp.

Jean-Yves Dormagen, president of Cluster17, told French media that Lagarde is viewed relatively favourably by centrist voters, suggesting she could emerge as a potential contender for the centrist camp.

However, the ECB president has yet to announce any intention to enter the presidential race. On the contrary, in an interview with French newspaper La Croix in late September, Lagarde described the prospect of running for president as a very bad idea.