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Akbar Novruz

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The Deputy Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Aleksei Shevtsov, has warned that Armenia’s potential accession to the EU could come at a steep economic cost of ‘approximately 23% of its GDP’. This appears to be the latest warning in a series of similar messages from Moscow to Yerevan against its EU bid, AzerNEWS reports.

Shevtsov explained that the figure was based on the ‘most conservative estimates’. He then outlined a bleak economic outlook, predicting a 22.6-percentage-point rise in inflation and a ‘significant decline in living standards’.

"Further increases in energy prices, including natural gas, are expected," Shevtsov said, according to TASS.

His remarks echo recent discussions about a possible rise in Russian gas prices for Armenia following talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in early April.

During the talks, Putin underscored that it is impossible to be in a customs union with both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while also highlighting Armenia’s significant discount on Russian energy purchases.

"The price of gas in Europe exceeds $600 per 1000 cubic metres, and Russia sells gas to Armenia for $177.5 per 1000 cubic metres," Putin said.

Despite Moscow’s warnings, Yerevan has signaled it may leave Russian-led economic and security blocs if gas prices rise, though officials have said such a scenario would be unlikely.

Armenia adopted a law in March 2025 calling on the government to seek EU integration. No accession bid has been submitted; however, Armenia has, at the highest level, announced its readiness to be closer to the EU, as much as the EU considers it possible.