Russia’s Gazprombank predicts growth of Azerbaijan's export of non-oil products
Azerbaijan's export of non-oil products and gas may increase in the medium term, Deputy Head of the Market Research Department at the Russian Gazprombank Gulnara Khaidarshina told Trend.
Khaidarshina added that the growth must reach $1.2 billion over four years to achieve $3.6 billion in 2025.
"It is easy to achieve this volume given Azerbaijan’s high export potential and the expected construction of new export-oriented facilities in the Karabakh region," the deputy head of the department said.
"A share in a total export volume will be increased by 2025 up to the levels close to 20 percent as a result of maintaining the comparable dynamics of export of non-oil products and gas in the medium term through the support of the measures which are being implemented taking into account the record growth of export of non-oil products and gas (in pre-crisis 2019 by 36.3 percent and an expected level this year - by 42 percent)," deputy head of the department added.
Khaidarshina added that Azerbaijan can benefit from high world food prices in terms of disruption in the global supply chains and rising prices for food.
"Fruits and vegetables were the biggest components of Azerbaijan's export of non-oil products with a 20.7 percent share from January through September 2021," the deputy head of the department said.
"According to the UN, the growth of the world food prices remained at the maximum level in October (31.3 percent on an annualized basis)," Khaidarshina said.
Khaidarshina said that in terms of a shortage of food products, importing countries may consider alternative suppliers having a closer location (including those with access to the seaports like Azerbaijan).
"For example, export from Azerbaijan to Russia increased by 22.8 percent over nine months, which is also associated with the supply of fruits and vegetables," the deputy head of the department said.
The deputy head of the department stressed that there is also a potential for the further development of metallurgy, for which Azerbaijan has the necessary natural and energy resources.
"Now the share of ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy (excluding the export of precious metals) in the total export volume of non-oil products is close to zero," Khaidarshina said.
"The investment projects are being implemented in metallurgy to develop the metallurgical industry in Azerbaijan," the deputy head of the department added.
The deputy head of the department recalled that it is planned to modernize the Sumgait Aluminum Plant and launch the production of iron ore raw materials by AzerGold CJSC.
"Moreover, the export volume of non-oil products can be increased to at least $3.6 billion till 2025 within Azerbaijan's national export strategy," Khaidarshina said.
"Proceeding from this scenario, the export share of non-oil products in the total volume, according to our estimates (taking into account the expected export growth of 42 percent this year), will reach 13 percent by 2025 and remain at a level close to that one in 2021," Khaidarshina said.
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