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​Professor of International Journalism Mikhail Gusman wrote an article for Anadolu Agency Analysis on the increasing importance of the South Caucasus in global politics and Azerbaijan's role in the region's new architecture.

The article examines the emerging geopolitical and economic architecture of the South Caucasus, depicting that the region is gradually moving from a conflict-centred framework towards greater emphasis on trade, transport, energy and regional cooperation. It identifies Azerbaijan’s strengthened position as a central feature of this transformation, highlighting its role as an energy supplier to Europe, transport hub and diplomatic actor maintaining ties with multiple global and regional powers.

AzerNEWS presents the article:

The South Caucasus is currently undergoing a historic period. Not only is the region's political configuration changing, but its importance in world politics is also shifting. Until very recently, the South Caucasus was perceived primarily through the lens of conflict and antagonism. Today, however, issues such as economic development, transportation corridors, energy, trade, and regional cooperation are increasingly coming to the forefront.

Especially after the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, it has become possible to speak of the region with a completely different logic, not as a constant conflict zone, but as a potential area of cooperation.

However, the interest of major global actors in the South Caucasus is also increasing. Here, the interests of Russia, Türkiye, Iran, the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and Central Asian countries intersect. Therefore, the balance is becoming more complex and multifaceted. Rather than the absolute dominance of any one side, a new system is emerging in which the roles of the countries in the region are significantly enhanced. Azerbaijan occupies a very special place in this system.

Azerbaijan's changing position in the region

Within this new balance of power, Azerbaijan's position has significantly strengthened. This is not solely related to the country's geography or energy resources. Today, Azerbaijan is increasingly emerging as an independent geopolitical actor capable of pursuing its own foreign policy while simultaneously maintaining relations with various power centers.

In recent years, there has been a very significant change in the international perception of Azerbaijan. Until recently, the country was mostly discussed outside the region in the context of the Karabakh conflict. Today, this is a completely inadequate description of Azerbaijan. The country has become a major energy partner of Europe, a significant transportation hub, and an active participant in international diplomacy. Azerbaijan has also strengthened its relations with Türkiye, Central Asia, Russia, Europe, the USA, and other states. This shows that Baku views its foreign policy not as a battleground between separate power centers, but as an opportunity to work in multiple directions simultaneously. Therefore, today, Azerbaijan's international weight is significantly greater than what can be estimated solely from the country's size or population.

Increased interest in the region

The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the geopolitical system of Eurasia. As trade routes, energy flows, and logistics shift, the importance of routes enabling the transport of goods and energy outside conflict zones has increased. This has significantly heightened interest in the South Caucasus and Caspian region. Following recent developments, we see Washington attempting to play a more visible role in regional resolution processes. However, this should not be viewed solely as a struggle for influence. Ideally, the South Caucasus could become an area where the interests of different states intersect, but this intersection does not necessarily lead to conflict. The current geopolitical situation presents a unique opportunity to foster cooperation. If the countries of the region embrace trade flows through their territories, infrastructure construction, and investment, this in itself would create an additional incentive for stability.

Furthermore, if everyone is interested in the stability of transportation routes, energy security, and the development of trade, an objective incentive to support peace emerges, and Azerbaijan is in a very strong position here. Baku can talk to different power centers and advance its national interests without abandoning cooperation with different partners.

Zangezur's key role in international trade

This new political situation in the South Caucasus also has the potential to objectively increase the role of the Middle Corridor in trade between Europe and Asia. Modern international trade needs routes that are not only cheap but also reliable, predictable, and diversified. Recent years have demonstrated very convincingly how fragile global logistics can become when major transport routes face political crises.

The Middle Corridor gains particular importance in this context. The corridor connects China and Central Asia to the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, and then to European markets. However, infrastructure alone is not enough for trade to fully develop in the region. Political stability needs to be ensured in all the countries through which this route passes.

This is why the processes taking place in the South Caucasus today have significance far beyond the region. If the sustainable development of transport links is ensured, the Middle Corridor can become one of the most important elements of the new Eurasian logistics. Regarding increasing the capacity of the Middle Corridor, the Zangezur Corridor is potentially one of the most important elements within the entire East-West transport system. The importance of the corridor lies primarily in its ability to connect Azerbaijan more directly to Nakhchivan and then to Türkiye.

For Türkiye, this opens up additional opportunities to strengthen its role as a transit hub between Asia and Europe. For Azerbaijan, it constitutes another element in transforming the region into a significant transportation center. In this sense, the Zangezur Corridor is a project that will complement the Central Corridor. The more interconnected railway and road routes there are, the higher the overall efficiency of the entire transportation system. In this sense, the opening of the Zangezur route can give an additional impetus to the entire Central Corridor.

Strengthening the Zangezur Corridor, and consequently the Central Corridor, offers Türkiye the opportunity to significantly strengthen its economic and political presence in the geography stretching from Anatolia to Central Asia. Today, spheres of influence are increasingly built through infrastructure rather than political pronouncements. If countries share railways, highways, energy systems, trade connections, and investments, a completely different level of interdependence emerges. In this respect, Azerbaijan becomes an extremely important partner for Türkiye. Through Azerbaijan, Türkiye has the opportunity to establish a much deeper interaction with Central Asian states.

Azerbaijan-Türkiye partnership

While the phrase "one nation, two states" is a well-known formula between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, it is not solely based on the emotional and historical closeness of the two peoples. In recent years, this relationship has gained a very concrete political, economic, and strategic dimension. Türkiye has become Azerbaijan's most important strategic partner. Azerbaijan, in turn, is of great importance to Türkiye as a state connecting Anatolia to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. And here a very interesting structure emerges: while Türkiye gains additional opportunities to access the Caspian Sea and then Central Asia through Azerbaijan, Central Asian states also gain more convenient access to Türkiye and European markets. Thus, rather than a new military-political bloc, a new network of economic, transportation, and political connections is forming.

When it comes to states with strong historical and strategic ties, relations between leaders also gain importance. In the case of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, we see a combination of personal trust, mutual political understanding, and convergence of strategic interests. When there is trust between leaders, this significantly facilitates the making and implementation of complex decisions. Aliyev and Erdoğan understand each other's political logic very well, which is particularly important during periods of significant regional change. However, relations between the two countries are based on strong societal support and a very solid historical bond. Therefore, while the personal closeness of the leaders is an important additional factor, relations between Azerbaijan and Türkiye are based on the convergence of long-term interests.

The Shusha Declaration, in particular, constituted a crucial step in the development of relations between the two states. With its comprehensive content ranging from politics and security to economics, energy, transportation, and humanitarian cooperation, the document effectively reinforced the alliance nature of relations between Azerbaijan and Türkiye. In other words, it established a political foundation for long-term strategic interaction. The importance of the Shusha Declaration extends beyond bilateral relations because this close interaction between Azerbaijan and Türkiye inevitably affects the entire architecture of the South Caucasus and the region's connections with Central Asia. This contributes to the development of trade relations, transportation links, and cultural and humanitarian contacts, including those within the Organization of Turkic States. Trade, transportation links, cultural and humanitarian contacts are developing among the countries of the Turkic world, and geography plays a very significant role here. Azerbaijan has a unique position between Türkiye and Central Asia, between the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus. Therefore, its role is naturally increasing. The most important step in this process is the development of economic relations. The more trade, transportation links, investments, and joint projects there are, the stronger the relations between the states will become. However, it is too early to say that a closed geopolitical axis has already formed here. Nevertheless, it can be said that an objective process of rapprochement is underway.

Azerbaijan's role in the new architecture of the South Caucasus

Considering all these developments, it would not be wrong to say that Azerbaijan's role in the South Caucasus will increasingly grow in the coming years. Moreover, Azerbaijan could become one of the most important connecting points not only in the South Caucasus, but also between Europe, the Caucasus, the Caspian region, Türkiye, and Central Asian countries. Here, we are no longer just talking about the importance of the country's geographical location. Azerbaijan has created new infrastructure around its geography, developed energy projects, built transportation routes, and established a network of political and economic partnerships. Therefore, it is possible to say that today, geography offers an opportunity for Azerbaijan, and state policies enable this opportunity to be transformed into a real political and economic resource.