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Akbar Novruz

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For decades, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) has lived as a strategic island, separated from the Azerbaijani mainland by geography and history. During the 1990s, Armenia attempted to choke the region into submission by cutting off all land and rail links. Today, a new aggressor has emerged using the same old playbook.

Recent reports of Iranian drone activity targeting the Nakhchivan International Airport signal a dangerous shift in regional grey-zone warfare. By hovering over the runway, the "Mullah Regime" isn't just testing a drone; they are testing the limits of a lifeline.

Nakhchivan is an exclave. Because it shares no land border with mainland Azerbaijan, it relies almost entirely on its airport for several reasons. That includes the daily commute of thousands of citizens and life-saving cargo that cannot wait for transit through third countries, while maintaining the defensive integrity of the region.

'Historical reference'

In the early 90s, during the first Karabakh war, Armenia successfully turned Nakhchivan into a "dark zone" by cutting electricity and land routes. The airport became the "Lungs of Nakhchivan." By targeting the airport now, Tehran is attempting a "Blockade 2.0." They realize that if the airport is rendered unsafe or non-operational, Nakhchivan becomes effectively paralyzed. We are talking about an attempt that would end with isolating 460,000 people from their capital, Baku. Targeting a civilian international airport is a red line. Under ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) regulations, interfering with civilian flight paths is a form of state-sponsored provocation that risks the lives of hundreds of innocent passengers.

The Geopolitical "Why?"

Why now? The answer lies in the Zangezur Corridor.

Iran fears losing its transit monopoly between Türkiye and Central Asia. By threatening Nakhchivan’s air space, they are trying to gain a bargaining chip against Azerbaijan’s infrastructure projects. It is a signal to Baku that "if you seek a corridor through the land, we will close your corridor through the sky." This thesis has been around for a big amount of period, especially since Azerbaijan regained its occupied territories. Perhaps the current situation in Iran suggests that it might be a great time to implement this idea. However, Tehran's plans might be to: cause panic, trying to justify its defensive act against US and Israel forces. Consequently, that means the countries would decide to put diplomatic pressure on the US specifically. The other reason also comes within the effect of this war atmosphere - basically implying the idea "If I am going down, we are all going down".

However, unlike the 90s, Azerbaijan today possesses the technological and diplomatic depth to ensure its "Lungs" keep breathing. Now let us see how the situation unfolds further.