Azernews.Az

By Alimat Aliyeva

The pace of global warming on Earth may have accelerated significantly in recent years. This conclusion was reached by scientists from the University of Potsdam, who analyzed long-term data on the planet’s temperature and separated the influence of natural climatic factors from human-caused ones, AzerNEWS reports.

The results of the study show that the rate of increase in the average global temperature over the past decade has almost doubled compared with the second half of the 20th century.

Since the beginning of the industrial era, the Earth’s temperature has been gradually rising due to greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activities such as burning coal, oil, and natural gas. Since the 1970s, global temperatures have increased by about 0.2°C per decade, and this rate remained relatively stable for many years.

However, in recent years a series of temperature records has been recorded. According to scientists, the last three years have been the warmest in the history of modern observations, and all ten of the hottest years have occurred since 2015.

To determine whether this warming is part of a long-term trend or simply the result of temporary natural fluctuations, researchers conducted additional statistical analysis. They removed the influence of three major natural climate factors from the temperature data: the El Niño phenomenon, volcanic activity, and variations in solar radiation. After filtering out these influences, the scientists identified the main signal — anthropogenic warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis showed that since 2015 the rate of temperature increase has risen to about 0.35–0.4°C per decade, which is nearly twice as fast as in previous decades.

The study did not aim to determine the exact cause of this acceleration. However, scientists suggest that one possible factor could be new environmental regulations for maritime transport introduced in 2020.

These regulations significantly reduced the emissions of pollutants from marine vessels. Although such emissions previously worsened air quality and caused hundreds of thousands of premature deaths every year, the aerosol particles they contained also helped form clouds over the ocean. These clouds reflect part of the Sun’s radiation back into space and create a cooling effect.

As a result, reducing aerosol emissions has improved air quality but may have temporarily increased the rate of global warming.

Some researchers also point to other possible contributors, including declining Arctic sea ice, changes in ocean heat circulation, and the growing concentration of methane in the atmosphere.

According to scientists, if the current rate of warming continues, the planet could experience an additional temperature increase of around 4°C by the end of the 21st century. For comparison, during the last ice age the global temperature was only about 5°C lower than today.

Climatologists warn that such rapid changes could lead to accelerated sea-level rise, more frequent and intense heatwaves, stronger storms, ocean acidification, major ecosystem disruptions, and increased risks to human health and food security.

“How fast warming will continue is ultimately determined by how quickly humanity can reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” the authors of the study emphasize.