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Nazrin Abdul

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Escalating tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States have raised concerns about the possibility of broader geopolitical involvement by major global powers. As the confrontation risks expanding beyond the Middle East, analysts increasingly discuss whether China might play a more active role and how such developments could affect nearby regions.

For countries in the South Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Georgia, and Armenia, the stakes could be significant. The region sits at the crossroads of major energy and transport routes linking Europe and Asia, making it particularly sensitive to instability in the broader Middle East. The South Caucasus has gained strategic importance in recent years as Europe seeks alternative energy supplies and transport corridors that bypass Russia and Iran. This has elevated the geopolitical value of infrastructure such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline and the wider Middle Corridor.

In an interview with AzerNEWS, Dr. Frank Musmar, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, Turkiye, and the Caucasus, discussed the likelihood of China becoming involved in the Iran-Israel-US confrontation and the potential consequences for regional security dynamics.

Q: Recent tensions in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have raised concerns about possible wider geopolitical involvement by other major powers. How likely is it that China could become more actively involved in this conflict, either diplomatically, economically, or militarily?

A: China's involvement in the Iranian conflict depends on regional and global developments, underscoring the importance of understanding how these dynamics influence China's strategic interests, including energy security, access to markets, regional influence, and regional stability, which are critical for policymakers and security analysts tracking global power shifts.

Militarily, direct involvement is less likely, as China tends to avoid military engagement outside its immediate sphere of influence. However, China could increase its presence through strategic partnerships or arms sales, depending on the situation. To better inform decision-making, it is essential to explore how these actions might escalate tensions or trigger broader conflicts, guided by China's desire to maintain regional stability and secure its economic interests, while avoiding confrontation with other global powers.

Q: If major powers become more involved, what implications could this have for neighboring regions such as the South Caucasus, particularly for countries like Azerbaijan and Turkiye which maintain relations with multiple competing actors? And following reports of a drone incident in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and the ongoing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, could the South Caucasus become indirectly affected by the broader Middle East conflict?

A: Increased major-power involvement in a potential Iran-Azerbaijan conflict could lead to specific scenarios, such as targeted attacks on energy infrastructure like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, or regional destabilization through proxy conflicts, underscoring the tangible risks that should concern policymakers about regional stability and the potential for broader escalation. So first, Azerbaijan's critical energy infrastructure, specifically the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries significant oil to Europe, could be a target for Iranian retaliation.

Second, increased involvement of major powers (USA, Israel, Russia, Turkiye) could transform regional tensions into a broader conflict, with reports of Iranian drone strikes already impacting the border regions and Azerbaijani territory. Third, continued instability threatens the South Caucasus's role as a key transport and energy corridor, stalling regional development. Fourth, an outright conflict could lead to a massive flow of refugees from Iran into Azerbaijan and the surrounding areas.

For Turkiye, it's a security risk because a major war weakening Iran could pose a direct threat to Turkiye, potentially strengthening Kurdish armed groups along its borders and reviving regional instability. Turkiye faces a risk of energy shortages, as Iran supplies a significant portion of its natural gas, and further economic strain, with the Lira already struggling against high inflation. Armenia will face uncertainty, as regional instability could either exacerbate its security concerns or, conversely, create opportunities for a peace deal. For Georgia, the risks are being caught in the crossfire of a wider conflict, particularly with its energy infrastructure potentially vulnerable. However, Russia may find its traditional role as a security guarantor in the Caucasus challenged, as other powers take a more active role in the region. Azerbaijan faces significant security anxieties due to threats from Iran, especially given its close ties with Israel and the West, which should evoke understanding of its defensive posture.

Q: With growing geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific, including security alliances such as AUKUS, could tensions over Taiwan intersect with crises in other regions like the Middle East, creating simultaneous geopolitical flashpoints?

A: These conflicts are becoming interconnected in those scenarios. First, the opposition - Russia, China, and Iran are increasingly coordinating to challenge the Western-led international order, sharing technology and offering mutual diplomatic support to bypass sanctions and counter US initiatives. While not a formal alliance, these powers share an interest in decreasing regional trust in the United States and driving a wedge between Washington and its allies. Russia and China have provided high-tech strategic assets, such as orbital surveillance and advanced missile guidance, to Iran, enabling Iranian-backed forces to target US interests more effectively.

Another factor is resource diversion - the war in Ukraine and the heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-Israel, Hamas, and Houthi conflicts, have strained Western resources, forcing the US to divide its military and diplomatic attention between Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific.

Q: From a global strategic perspective, is the international system moving toward a situation where regional conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, and Eastern Europe, become interconnected within a broader great-power rivalry?

A: The war in the Middle East can trigger refugee flows into Europe and increase energy prices, impacting the economic resilience of Western nations that are simultaneously trying to support Ukraine and deter China in the Indo-Pacific. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided Middle Eastern governments with more room to hedge, as they perceive the US as distracted and less capable of enforcing its will globally. Lastly, China's increased aggression in the South China Sea forces the US to focus on the Indo-Pacific, potentially creating a security vacuum in the Middle East that Russia and China may exploit.