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Akbar Novruz

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For more than a century, hazelnuts have been the quiet backbone of a peculiar corner of global agriculture: a crop that is simultaneously niche and indispensable, prized by chocolatiers and nut lovers alike. Yet in 2025, climatic volatility laid bare the fragility of that system. Severe spring frosts ravaged hazelnut orchards across Türkiye, the world’s dominant producer, pushing global supplies towards contraction and prices into uncharted territory. In the wake of these shocks, Azerbaijan’s hazelnut industry has emerged as one of the unlikely beneficiaries.

According to official export data, Azerbaijan shipped 18,700 tonnes of hazelnut kernels in 2025, earning $169.86m in foreign exchange, roughly 34 percent more than the $126.7m earned in 2024. Although the shipment volume was slightly smaller than the previous year, the average export price jumped sharply, from about $6,555 per tonne to $9,096 per tonne, a near 39 percent rise.

The reason for this value surge is simple: supply elsewhere has collapsed. Türkiye, which normally accounts for around 65–70 percent of global hazelnut production, suffered one of the worst frost events in decades, particularly across key Black Sea growing regions such as Ordu and Giresun. Reports suggest losses of up to 50–75 percent in high-altitude orchards, with total output projected as much as 30–40 percent below normal.

That has driven nut prices in Europe well above historical norms. Wholesale hazelnut prices shot up by roughly 30–34 percent in the aftermath, with some commodity trackers reporting values around €9,400 (about $10,900) per tonne, a level that has left confectionery buyers nervously recalibrating costs.

Türkiye is the world's dominant hazelnut exporter, controlling approximately 60%–75% of global supply. Other top exporters, following far behind, include Chile, Italy, the United States, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Major markets for these exports include Germany, Italy, and France.

Given this fact, global impact has been felt far from the orchards. Major buyers such as chocolate producer Ferrero, which sources large shares of hazelnuts for products like Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, have described the situation as one of "unprecedented volatility" and moved quickly to diversify sources beyond Türkiye.

For Azerbaijan, this crisis has created a commercial opening. Positioned among the top ten hazelnut exporters globally, the country has been steadily building its reputation for quality kernels. In the first half of 2025 alone, hazelnut shipments from Azerbaijan rose by nearly 28 percent in volume and almost 48 percent in value compared with the same period in 2024.

Beyond crude export figures, the shift signals a deeper market repositioning. Global analysts note that climatic pressures are likely to make agricultural markets even more volatile in the years ahead, affecting everything from cocoa and coffee to nuts and fruit. Hazelnut markets, long dependent on a single dominant producer, have proved especially vulnerable to weather extremes, a trend some observers say reflects the wider risks of climate change on food systems.

There are strategic lessons, too. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has previously highlighted that Azerbaijan, while a significant producer, has yet to capitalise fully on processed hazelnut exports, such as pastes, oils and confectionery ingredients, which carry higher global value than raw kernels. As buyers seek alternative sources, Baku may find more room not only to sell raw tonnage but also to move up the value chain.

The distribution of Azerbaijani hazelnuts also tells a shifting story. Russia remained the largest single destination in 2025, although exports there contracted by over 26 percent. European markets, particularly Germany and Italy, absorbed larger shares, with exports to Germany rising by more than 30 percent and commanding premium prices above $11,000 per tonne. Smaller but fast-growing markets such as Switzerland and Türkiye itself also expanded Azerbaijani purchases markedly.

Even so, weather and price dynamics have left their imprint everywhere. Turkish hazelnut exports overall, for instance, have shown declines in both volume and revenue against 2024, reflecting not just frost damage but also shifting demand amid higher costs.

Whether Baku can sustain this "unexpected" momentum and move beyond raw kernels into branded and processed products will depend on both policy choices and the continuing evolution of global supply chains. Perhaps, the opportunity is there. With climate volatility likely to remain a defining feature of agricultural trade, the world’s hazelnut map may look markedly different a decade from now.