Azernews.Az

By News Centre

A classified assessment by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) indicates that even a major US military campaign would likely fail to dismantle Iran’s ruling military and clerical establishment, AzerNEWS reports via Anadolu.

According to a report cited by The Washington Post, senior intelligence analysts concluded that Iran’s power structure would probably survive a large-scale attack, contradicting claims by US President Donald Trump that Washington could remove Iran’s leadership and replace it with a new government.

The NIC — which represents the combined analysis of all 18 US intelligence agencies — prepared the classified report roughly a week before the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28.

The assessment examined potential outcomes if Iranian leadership figures were targeted through either limited strikes or broader attacks on key government institutions.

Intelligence officials reportedly determined that even if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, Iran’s political and military elite would likely rely on established succession mechanisms to maintain the existing system.

Sources familiar with the findings also suggested that Iran’s fragmented opposition groups would be unlikely to take advantage of such a scenario to gain power.

The report did not assess other possible strategies, such as deploying US ground forces in Iran or supporting Kurdish groups in an effort to trigger internal unrest. It also remains unclear whether the scenario evaluated in the document reflects the current military situation.

Regional tensions have escalated since the United States and Israel launched a large-scale offensive on February 28. The attacks reportedly killed more than 1,000 people, including senior Iranian military officials and civilians.

In response, Iran has carried out extensive retaliatory strikes targeting US military bases, diplomatic facilities, and personnel across the region, as well as several cities in Israel.