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Akbar Novruz

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On the surface, the announcement in late January 2026 seemed like a dry piece of bureaucratic housekeeping: the European Union, Azerbaijan, and the EBRD had signed off on a feasibility study for a railway linking Azerbaijan’s mainland to its isolated exclave of Nakhchivan. But in the corridors of power in Brussels and Baku, the project is being spoken of in far more epic terms. It is the latest move in a high-stakes geopolitical chess game intended to pivot the center of gravity for global trade away from traditional northern routes.

This isn't just about track and ballast; it is a direct response to a world of "permacrisis.

In late January 2026, the European Union, Azerbaijan, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) agreed to undertake a feasibility study for the proposed line, a key component of the broader Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, which aims to connect Europe and Central Asia within a 15-day transit window.

At its core, this project is about connectivity in an era of shifting trade patterns. Land routes between Asia and Europe have grown in appeal against a backdrop of supply chain disruptions, from pandemic bottlenecks to geopolitical flashpoints such as conflicts in the Middle East and Red Sea shipping chaos. The EU’s Global Gateway initiative, under which this study is being conducted, explicitly frames such corridors as tools to reduce dependence on single transit routes and enhance economic resilience.

Why Nakhchivan Matters?

Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani exclave split by Armenian territory, has long been a logistical challenge. Currently, access is possible only by air or circuits that traverse neighbouring countries, making its connection to the Azerbaijani mainland a priority not just for mobility but for economic integration and national cohesion. A dedicated railway would streamline freight and passenger flows, integrate regional markets more closely, and offer new options for logistics operators.

The planned line dovetails with the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC), part of the EU’s broader strategy to knit together the EU’s Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) with infrastructure across the Caucasus and Central Asia. Projects endorsed under Global Gateway are designed to leverage international financial instruments and partnerships to unlock sustainable jobs, boost trade ties, and strengthen rural and urban connectivity alike.

The Nakhchivan railway does not exist in isolation. It is one stitch in a larger fabric of transport arteries weaving the South Caucasus into wider Eurasian trade systems. Most prominently, the Zangezur Corridor, rebranded in some diplomatic circles as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), has emerged as a complementary east–west link facilitating uninterrupted transport between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Türkiye. This link alone promises to integrate road and rail corridors that span from Azerbaijan’s main territory through Armenia to Nakhchivan and onward to Türkiye and Europe.

Support for these integrated networks is not limited to Europe and Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan has publicly backed the TRIPP transport initiative, seeing it as a means to diversify its own export routes and connect directly to European markets without transiting Russia.

Infrastructure like the Kars–Iğdır–Aralık railway in Türkiye, part of the Zangezur and Middle Corridor, and the existing Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) line exemplify how physical connectivity can reduce transport costs, cut freight times and redistribute trade flows. Once functioning end-to-end, these corridors are expected to lower shipping times from China to Europe by several days and help shift traffic from maritime routes that have been vulnerable to disruption.

What do the numbers say?

In 2025, Eurasian connectivity and trade are being reshaped by significant infrastructure shifts and strategic energy diversification. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) Railway has become a cornerstone of this transition, reducing transit times between Azerbaijan and Turkiye to just 10–12 days, a stark contrast to the several weeks required by sea, and seeing a 30% year-on-year freight volume increase in 2025. While the International Transport Forum estimates that overland corridors could handle 15–20% of Asia–Europe freight by 2030, significant hurdles remain; for instance, the World Bank notes that inefficient cross-border procedures can add up to 30% to total transport costs. Furthermore, logistical efficiency is often hampered by rail standardization issues, where the transition between the 1520 mm gauge used in the Caucasus and Central Asia and the 1435 mm standard gauge in Turkiye and Europe necessitates complex transshipment solutions.

On the energy front, Azerbaijan has solidified its role in regional security, supplying roughly 24% of Turkiye’s imported gas in 2025 and increasing deliveries to Europe to counter historical dependencies, such as in 2013, when over 60% of EU crude oil arrived via Russian pipelines. This shift is supported by massive investments, including the EU’s €300 billion Global Gateway program and the EBRD’s financing of transport and energy corridors. Even renewable energy is playing a role in this economic tapestry, evidenced by Masdar’s $660 million investment in Azerbaijani solar projects totaling 760 MW. Ultimately, these advancements in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor provide a vital alternative to maritime routes disrupted by geopolitical tensions; by cutting delivery times by 4–10 days, these corridors lower working capital costs and leverage a trade elasticity where a 10% reduction in transport costs can boost regional goods flows by as much as 8–12%.

The strategic calculus is unmistakable. The EU’s involvement is not merely economic: it is deliberate geopolitical diversification. By investing in a rail link outside the territory of Russia and Iran, Brussels is backing infrastructure that reduces reliance on transit routes through those countries and enhances Western ties with Eurasian economies. A robust Trans-Caspian corridor would help reposition the South Caucasus as a logistics hub anchoring Europe, Türkiye and Central Asia, opening doors for trade, investment, and digital and energy interconnections.

American engagement through TRIPP similarly intertwines infrastructure with geostrategic objectives, positioning the United States, as well as private and multinational economic actors, more deeply within Eurasian transport networks that historically fell within Russia’s sphere of influence. This shift carries major implications for how regional states manage sovereignty, external partnerships and long-term development strategies.

Despite the enthusiasm, significant hurdles remain. Feasibility studies precede financing and construction and must address terrain challenges, cost structures, and cross-border legal harmonization. Further, the success of such corridors depends not just on tracks and rails but on customs interoperability, regulatory cooperation and security assurances across multiple governments and blocs.

However, the project’s inclusion under the Global Gateway and Cross-Regional Connectivity Agenda signals that it has passed an early political test, it is now viewed as a shared investment into the future of Eurasian connectivity. For Azerbaijan, the railway to Nakhchivan represents a strategic bet on being more than an energy exporter: it positions Baku as a central node in the emerging trade architecture linking Europe with dynamic markets to the east.