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Qabil Ashirov

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The year 2026 may be one of the decisive years for the S&P 500 index. This index, considered the main indicator of the U.S. stock market, has for decades served investors both as a reliable unit of measurement and as a mirror of economic trends. However, in the coming period, the dynamics of the S&P 500 will be determined not only by the performance of existing giants, but also by the entry of new technology companies, especially players operating in the field of artificial intelligence, into the stock exchange.

History shows that the technology sector has played a decisive role in the long-term rise of the S&P 500. Especially after the 1990s, the rapid development of the internet, digital platforms, and global technology companies fundamentally changed the structure of the index. Today, technology companies make up about 25–30 percent of the S&P 500, and it is precisely this sector that has the greatest impact on the overall performance of the index. This share is not limited only to software and hardware manufacturers; social networks, search and advertising platforms, cloud technologies, and in recent years, rapidly developing generative artificial intelligence products are the main pillars of this growth.

Against this background, expectations are strengthening that 2026 will be the “IPO year” for the technology sector. According to market sources, OpenAI has entered a serious preparation stage for public listing in the near future. The company is negotiating with Wall Street banks, strengthening its finance and investor relations teams, and these steps show that OpenAI’s intention to move from the private market to the public market has already passed from the theoretical to the practical stage. It is reported that OpenAI’s market value is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars, which could make it one of the largest technology IPOs in history.

In parallel with OpenAI, one of its main rivals, Anthropic, does not hide the possibility of going public either. The company is evaluating a suitable time window for listing amid rapidly growing revenues, demand for its products, and investor interest. Although both companies have not yet fully reached profitability, the market at this stage values not so much profit as the potential of technology to integrate into the economy. Artificial intelligence has already become not only an element for the technology sector, but also a key infrastructure element for finance, industry, logistics, media, and even government administration.

The IPO of such large AI companies will not be just a statistical change for the S&P 500. New listings will further increase the share of the technology sector in the index and strengthen the already dominant position of this sector. If OpenAI, Anthropic, and similar large-scale companies are included in the index, the share of technology rising above 30 percent becomes a realistic scenario. This means that the movement of the index in the coming decades will depend more on the fate of AI and the platform economy.

The important point here is that this process differs from past technology waves. In the internet boom of the 1990s, technology mainly created new markets, whereas artificial intelligence is already reshaping all existing markets. This makes its long-term impact deeper and more sustainable. That is why analysts predict that technology companies, especially AI-based platforms, will remain the main driving force of the S&P 500 over the next 15–20 years.