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Qabil Ashirov

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The war that began between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the 1990s severely obstructed not only the socio-economic development of both states but also the progress of the wider region. It was not merely material resources that were destroyed; human lives and aspirations were shattered. As a result of the irredentist foreign policy pursued by the Armenian leadership of that time, nearly 30,000 people lost their lives, several times that number were left disabled, and more than one million people all their possesses they had, becoming refugees or internally displaced persons. They were forced to cling to life in tents, administrative buildings, and other facilities never intended for human habitation.

Beyond this, in a small region like the South Caucasus — home to only three states — two of them have kept their borders closed since the very day they gained independence. Needless to say, this has dealt a heavy blow to the economies of both countries and undermined the material well-being of their populations. In short, the war we refer to affected everyone living in these two neighboring states, either directly or indirectly.

Yet in 2020, a process began that culminated in Azerbaijan’s remarkable victory, ushering in new realities for the region. Thanks to the determination of Azerbaijan and its leadership, these realities translated into political success. Put more clearly, for the first time the air carried not the smell of gunpowder but the scent of peace and stability. As President Ilham Aliyev noted in Davos at “Defining Eurasia's Economic Identity”: “It was a historical achievement last August when the two countries initialed a peace agreement, thus putting an end to more than three decades of war and bloodshed. The uniqueness of this peace deal is that it was signed less than two years after the last bloody clash.”

Today, this bloody chapter in the South Caucasus is on the verge of closing. Weapons no longer speak; politicians do. Occupation is no longer the subject; instead, economic issues between the two neighboring states are being discussed. True, the borders remain closed — but this is to be expected. Painful as it may be, one must admit that believing two nations who lived in enmity for 30 years could leave everything behind overnight would be naïve. Opening borders and establishing normal relations will take time, as measures must be taken to build trust between the two peoples.

Nevertheless, despite the borders still being closed, determined steps by the leaders of both countries have already enabled limited economic cooperation. Surely, these measures affect the lives of people across the region. Azerbaijani planes now fly over Armenia, saving time. Armenia imports fuel from Azerbaijan, allowing Armenians to access cheaper energy. As President Ilham Aliyev stated: “But today, the benefits of peace are reflected in the beginning of cooperation. The first cargo of critical products, oil products, from Azerbaijan is being transported to Armenia, and in itself, it brings prices down.”

This is a major achievement. Yet its significance extends beyond the region. Looking at the world that emerged after the Second World War, one reality becomes clear: conflicts do not end, they are frozen. Virtually none of the conflicts that arose during that period have been resolved. Unfortunately, the world continues to live with this reality, and citizens of conflict-ridden countries suffer as a result. Vast resources are diverted to managing these disputes. Azerbaijan, however, stands out as one of the rare countries where this reality did not prevail. Through resolute policy and social unity, Azerbaijan demonstrated to the world that such a situation is unacceptable. The result was a new global reality — a precedent. As President Ilham Aliyev emphasized: “So it was absolutely unimaginable maybe two or three years ago, but today, it is a reality.”

A firm stance has spoken for itself, and the process continues to unfold naturally. It can now be said that the Qarabag crisis is behind us. Figuratively speaking, that page of history has been closed. New realities and a new economic environment have emerged. No one should, nor can, obstruct them. As President Ilham Aliyev remarked, “And I think nothing can interfere with this process. What we need to do more, I think, is for both sides to demonstrate the results of living in peace, so that we can also witness the full support of our societies through this process. But I am very optimistic, because really what has been achieved is a tremendous benefit to Armenia, to Azerbaijan, and to the Southern Caucasus, and it sets an example of how countries that were once in very deep, hostile terms now transform into a phase of cooperation.”