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Akbar Novruz

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A significant shift in the Eurasian energy landscape is gaining momentum as Azerbaijan and Türkiye deepen their cooperation on natural gas supply, anchored by the burgeoning potential of the Absheron gas field in the Caspian Sea. Long reliant on Russian and Iranian imports, Ankara is strategically diversifying its energy basket, and Baku is poised to become an increasingly central supplier and partner in the region’s evolving energy architecture.

At the heart of this development is an agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Türkiye to supply 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas over 15 years from the Absheron gas field, beginning in 2029. Under the terms announced by Türkiye’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, annual deliveries of 2.25 billion cubic meters (bcm) will flow through existing infrastructure, notably the Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum pipeline, reinforcing established transit routes and commercial links between the two countries.

The Absheron gas-condensate field is a major Caspian offshore discovery made by Azerbaijani geologists in the 1960s, estimated to hold around 350 bcm of natural gas reserves. Commercial production at Absheron commenced in July 2023, with Phase 1 supplying approximately 1.5 billion cubic meters per year to Azerbaijan’s domestic market. The field’s development has drawn strong international investment: Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR works alongside TotalEnergies and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), which joined the project in 2023, signalling confidence in the field’s long-term prospects.

Work on Phase 2 of Absheron’s development is advancing toward a final investment decision, and industry officials say a commercial launch is expected by late 2028 or early 2029, aligning with the timeline for deliveries to Türkiye. At full capacity under Phase 2, production could reach 4.5 bcm per year, with estimates in some analyses suggesting even higher potential output as operations scale up.

How the Absheron Gas Field could serve as an alternative to Russian Gas for Türkiye

Türkiye’s pivot toward Azerbaijani gas reflects broader shifts in its energy strategy. For decades, Ankara relied heavily on Russian and Iranian gas, but geopolitical pressures, the impending expiry of existing supply contracts, and a growing emphasis on energy security have driven a re-evaluation. In 2025, Azerbaijan already ranked as Türkiye’s second-largest natural gas supplier, accounting for around 24.3 per cent of total imports, highlighting the strength of existing commercial ties.

Türkiye has also diversified by importing gas from Turkmenistan and increasing its uptake of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which currently meets about %25 of its demand, as Ankara seeks flexibility in pricing and supply routes. Experts say the period around 2028-2029 will be critical, as global LNG volumes rise and contract structures evolve, potentially reshaping regional pricing dynamics and long-term supply planning.

Azerbaijan’s enhanced role as a supplier aligns with these trends. Beyond Absheron, Azerbaijan has steadily increased gas exports to Türkiye, with nearly 8.8 bcm delivered in the first nine months of 2025, a roughly 4 per cent year-on-year increase. The expansion of shipments through the Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum pipeline and the integration of new gas sources provide Ankara with alternatives to traditional supply routes, contributing to its broader diversification strategy.

The strategic alignment between Azerbaijan and Türkiye on gas has implications that extend beyond bilateral trade. For Azerbaijan, securing a long-term contract that spans into the 2040s strengthens its position as a system-shaping partner in regional energy security rather than a peripheral supplier. The use of established infrastructure also ensures that new volumes can flow efficiently without the need for extensive new pipeline construction, reducing costs and risks.

For Türkiye, extending energy ties with Azerbaijan through stable, contracted supplies supports its goals of reducing dependency on single-source suppliers, improving energy resilience, and maintaining price competitiveness for consumers and industry. The diversification strategy also aligns with Ankara’s diplomatic and economic objectives, as natural gas becomes both a symbol of cooperation and a practical tool for strategic autonomy.

In a regional context, such developments also create new corridors of cooperation. Expanded Azerbaijani gas supplies could support transit to neighbouring markets, potentially even toward Europe, where alternative supply options are increasingly valued amid fluctuating global flows. Already, Azerbaijan has shown its capacity to serve as a bridge for pipeline gas across the South Caucasus, and agreements like the Absheron deal reinforce that role.

The growing collaboration between Azerbaijan and Türkiye on the Absheron gas field represents an important development in Eurasian energy dynamics. Transitioning from years of reliance on conventional suppliers to new and diverse partnerships demonstrates how both nations are adapting to evolving geopolitical and market forces. If the anticipated launch of Absheron’s Phase 2 production occurs and the 33 bcm agreement is activated, this partnership will not only transform their national energy strategies but also bolster stability and strategic robustness in the broader region.