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Akbar Novruz

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Since the start of the year, China has completely stopped importing electricity from Russia and has refused even the minimum contracted volumes of around 12 megawatts, according to reports citing foreign media. The suspension reflects deeper shifts in Beijing’s energy strategy and the evolving dynamics of China–Russia trade, Azernews reports.

The decision comes as electricity imports from Russia have already been falling sharply. Data from Russian energy operators indicate that supplies to China plunged significantly in 2025, driven by capacity constraints within Russia’s grid and rising domestic demand in the Russian Far East that limited available exports.

Industry observers say the probability of resuming electricity exports to China in 2026 appears extremely low, largely because the export price has exceeded China’s domestic electricity tariffs, making imports economically unattractive for Chinese utilities.

The developments also occur amid a broader contraction in China–Russia trade. Recent data show that bilateral trade posted its first annual decline in five years in 2025, with a notable drop in the value of Chinese imports from Russia, including energy products.

Analysts suggest several factors behind the shift:

• Russia’s own energy constraints, including grid bottlenecks and resource limitations in its eastern regions, have made it harder to sustain large electricity exports to China.

• Changing market economics in China, where domestic electricity prices have remained comparatively low, reducing the incentive to buy higher‑cost imported power.

• Strategic recalibrations in Beijing’s energy portfolio, as China balances diversified energy sources, rising domestic production, and expanding trade with other partners.

Energy experts note that while electricity is just one piece of the complex Sino‑Russian energy relationship, the dramatic drop in power imports underscores growing economic friction in sectors once seen as cooperative. China remains a major buyer of Russian crude oil, but overall bilateral trade figures have softened, suggesting shifts in demand and pricing pressures that could influence future energy and economic ties between the two countries.

The situation highlights how energy markets and geopolitical strategy intersect, as both countries navigate post‑pandemic demand patterns, commodity price swings, and competition in regional energy supply chains. If the trend continues, it could signal a reshaping of China’s energy import mix and force Moscow to seek alternative export markets or adapt its pricing models.