Azernews.Az

Six months after US President Donald Trump launched an aggressive trade war, the global economy has shown unexpected resilience, Azernews reports via the Economist reports. Despite rising tensions between the US and China, fears of a sharp economic downturn have not materialized, and many economic indicators remain positive.

After a spring slowdown, Goldman Sachs’ Current Activity Index shows that global growth continues at pre-trade-war levels, while JPMorgan’s global PMI reached a 14-month high in August. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve, US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the third quarter of 2025, although a slowdown is expected in the fourth quarter. Only Finland among OECD countries is currently in recession, down from eight at the start of 2023, and the global growth forecast for 2025 has risen from 2.2% to 2.6%.

One factor behind this resilience is that Trump’s tariffs have been less severe than expected. While initial plans suggested an effective import tax of 28%, the current average stands at around 10%. At the same time, expansionary fiscal policies in the US continue to support domestic demand, sustaining market confidence.

Corporate earnings are also robust. Global corporate profits rose 7% year-on-year in Q2, and the MSCI ACWI stock index reached an all-time high. Cycle-oriented sectors like autos and construction equipment are outperforming, reflecting broader economic momentum.

Concerns that economic growth is overly dependent on artificial intelligence (AI) are largely overblown. While AI-related investments have contributed to growth in the US, much of this is tied to general information processing equipment and software, not AI specifically. Outside the US, IT has not emerged as a major growth driver.

The labor market remains stable. In the US, employment growth has slowed somewhat, but no significant change has been observed since the launch of ChatGPT. Elsewhere in the OECD, 37 countries added 3 million jobs in the first half of the year, consistent with pre-pandemic norms.

Consumer confidence, however, remains subdued. In the US, it has rebounded somewhat but is still below pre-pandemic levels. High global uncertainty and frequent searches for “tariffs” suggest ongoing public concern. Some experts warn that stock market volatility linked to AI could further depress sentiment.

Despite these uncertainties, six months after the trade war escalation, the global economy continues to demonstrate strong resilience, defying initial expectations of a crisis.