Macron’s approach: when personal glory threatens region and France’s long-term ambitions
By Trend
The French political establishment has become a center of attention in Baku due to the hostility of French foreign policy towards Azerbaijan. In the last two years, the French President, and members of parliament made numerous controversial statements, in addition to failing to adhere to the principle of impartiality regarding the mediation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and subsequent post-conflict peacebuilding.
Not to say that this is a new and shocking development, but France has always swayed toward Armenia, a bit too much for Azerbaijan’s taste. The key development is that the prevalent opinion in Azerbaijan seems to move in the direction of disenchantment in the French approach on the matter. It cannot be blamed; after all, it is obvious to Azerbaijan that Paris is a supporter of Yerevan.
The position of France as an unfriendly country to Azerbaijan has become rather obvious to politicians, experts, and political observers in Baku, which, however, should be a very new and troubling development for Paris. Continuing this set of policies takes the leverage away from France vis-à-vis Azerbaijan because Baku will disregard this coercive approach, as making any concessions on the matter will undermine Azerbaijan’s long-term security.
Meanwhile, Armenia’s close integration and dependence on Russia means that France places too much trust in one side, which may be enticed or coerced to act in contradiction to French interests and needs. Should France encounter a combination of the above-mentioned circumstances, both Azerbaijan and Armenia would turn away from the EU powerhouse, which would mean that France would have no foundation to extend its influence in South Caucasus.
The truth is, however, France will not be able to achieve its goal increase its influence in South Caucasus. Baku sees talking to President Macron on the matter of Karabakh as a waste of time, as evidenced by President Ilham Aliyev’s refusal of France-mediated talks in Brussels in early December. Iran is largely irrelevant in the current setup of the region. This leaves us with two remaining powers that influence South Caucasus - Russia and Türkiye. France managed to damage relations with Türkiye to pursue dubious political ambitions, while also not being on the best of terms with Russia due to the incompatible positions of Moscow and Paris on Ukraine, which France supports politically and militarily.
Also, France played a major role in sanctioning Russia, which adds to the negative relationship dynamic. This means that neither Baku, Ankara, nor Moscow would agree to transfer a part of their influence in the region to France, which will use it to undermine the position of said countries and fill the existing vacuum.
There is another side to the issue that most policy experts tend to overlook. The decisions of French ruling elites are not aimed to secure the best possible outcome for Armenia, which is establishing cooperation with neighbors. After all, liberal peace-induced trade and communications are the major reason for peace in Europe, which was plagued by various conflicts for centuries.
It is possible to argue that French politicians’ approach to Azerbaijan-Armenia relations serves one important purpose, which is to keep Armenia within its sphere of influence. And it works because the self-destructing foreign policy of Armenia forced every country to use coercive methods against it. Meanwhile, Paris is the only major capital that consistently uses carrots in relations with Armenia. By supporting Armenia in symbolic, yet undiplomatic ways, Paris can retain Yerevan within its grasp, without giving anything significant in return and with little regard to the future of Azerbaijan-Armenia peace.
However, it is more likely that President Macron’s intention is not to foster durable peace. It is the sensation of gratification from a perception of a grand accomplishment. In the hands of a moral and fair person, this is a virtue. However, this is not the reality in the case of President Macron’s policy. From his perspective, becoming a peacemaker is much more important than creating and fostering long-term and sustainable peace. It is a matter of personal glory and extending the political ambitions of the country.
French elites, the president and mass media prefer to place themselves on moral high ground and use this opportunity to be a metaphorical valiant knight protecting those in need. French politicians are happy to overlook international agreements, treaties, documents, and obligations in favor of appeasing an important part of their electorate. And this is also fine. After all, an investment banker does not become a president by pure luck or coincidence; it requires support and financial resources.
Now here comes the big question. If France is so adamant about supporting the key principles of international relations, the UN charter, and other states’ territorial integrity, why Paris does not pursue the same approach regarding Azerbaijan?
The inconsistent policy of France, which is based on preferential treatment of the diaspora to acquire political support diminishes the credibility of Paris as an important partner and trustworthy partner. And this endangers any future endeavors of the country, both in South Caucasus and globally.
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