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Akbar Novruz

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In Berlin, Azerbaijan gets its most important European endorsement yet. A strong and perhaps bold statement. Well, the original plan was to hold this visit in March. It got delayed twice, due to the conflict between Iran and the general disruption in everyone's schedules across the region, and also due to the fact that Germany, under the leadership of Merz and in the process of its own geopolitical recalibration, was trying to figure out its foreign policy priorities. The fact that it actually took place this week, and with the range of agreements signed, says something about how urgently both sides now want this relationship formalised. That it also happened against the backdrop of a clandestine meeting in Baku about Ukraine says something rather more interesting about the geopolitical density of the moment.

The centrepiece of President Aliyev's Berlin visit was the signing of the Joint Declaration on the Strategic Agenda for Bilateral Partnership, the document that formally moves Azerbaijan-Germany relations from the transactional to the strategic. The agreement touches on energy, transportation, infrastructure, trade, investments, scientific and technological cooperation, defense industries cooperation, and digitalization. Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the Joint Declaration, as Azerbaijani officials have been very accurate in pointing out, is the second such framework document that Azerbaijan signs with a large Western European country, after Italy. Germany is the biggest economy in the European Union.

Energy arithmetic of Eurasia

Energy is the foundation on which everything else in this bilateral relationship sits, and both sides spent considerable time in Berlin being precise about what that means in practice. This year, for the first time, natural gas is piped directly to Germany from Azerbaijan, a 10-year deal struck with German firms, with an initial capacity of 1.5 billion cubic meters per year, increasing to 2 billion next year. Azerbaijani President was explicit about the maximum amount of gas that can be supplied under current circumstances: since both TANAP and TAP are working at full capacity now, the existing pipeline network forms a limitation in itself irrespective of any intentions on paper. The constraint is not the availability of energy from Azerbaijan. The problem lies with European investments in additional infrastructure required to transport the gas in the westward direction.

The pointed element of Ilham Aliyev's answer to the Reuters journalist who pressed on volumes was his identification of the European Investment Bank's decision to halt funding for oil and gas projects, a consequence of the green agenda, as a structural impediment to the very energy security that Europe says it needs. Azerbaijani gas exports reached 25 billion cubic metres last year, half of which went to EU countries. Growing that further requires European banks to fund pipeline expansion that their own climate policies currently prohibit. It is a contradiction that neither Berlin nor Brussels has publicly resolved, and Aliyev named it directly at a press conference in the German chancellery.

"Azerbaijan is one of the few countries in the region that produces energy in surplus. That makes it an attractive partner, and a candid one about the limits of the relationship" - Chancellor Merz

Baku meeting nobody told Azerbaijan about

Well, in fact, the most surprising point at the press conference was related to something more eye-catching. A reporter from Deutsche Welle asked Merz whether there was any truth in The Times report about a secret German-Russian meeting that had allegedly happened in Baku several days ago – namely, that two high-ranking German officials, including an ex-Chief of Staff to Merkel, had met with the former Prime Minister of Russia Viktor Zubkov and another high-ranking Russian official. Merz denied having any information on this matter. Aliyev was obviously well-prepared to answer this question.

He confirmed that border service data showed the named individuals, German figures Ronald Pofalla and Matthias Platzeck, and Russian officials Zubkov and Fadeyev, had flown into and out of Baku on overlapping dates between July 12 and 14. Azerbaijan, he said, had received no notification from either Germany or Russia. "Our territory was simply utilised without our knowledge." He stopped short of confirming a meeting had occurred, "we did not witness it", but the data he presented made the inference unavoidable. His closing line landed in the room without drama: "If this meeting serves to end the Ukrainian-Russian war, we, of course, welcome it."

As much as you can gauge the feeling of concern in the first part of the statement, the latter part of President Ilham Aliyev's statement is particularly noteworthy and diplomatic, as it leaves open the possibility that Baku may have inadvertently hosted a discreet diplomatic channel. This aligns with Azerbaijan's broader approach to the Russia-Ukraine war: maintaining balanced relations with both sides while positioning itself as a neutral facilitator. His public disclosure of the border data at the press conference was indeed a calibrated response: transparent enough to demonstrate that Azerbaijan runs an accountable state, and firm enough to make clear that such use of its territory requires prior coordination.

Germany's second chapter in the South Caucasus

Earlier on July 21, Aliyev met German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who described Azerbaijan and Germany as "islands of stability" against the backdrop of ongoing global turbulence, a statement that could have been seen as a bit grandiose when considering that Azerbaijan is a small country of ten million population, yet which is indicative of a fundamental change in Germany’s assessment of Azerbaijan’s significance. As the one who held the position of German foreign minister under Chancellor Merkel and knew the region well, Steinmeier recognized the contribution of Azerbaijan to the energy security of Europe, and complimented Aliyev for the progress in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The signing of the strategic partnership declaration is the German contribution to what seems to be a trend in Europe’s engagement with Baku in 2026. von der Leyen came in July. The president of the European Council came in March. Now, Europe's biggest member state has signed an agreement that explicitly includes defense cooperation, joint military exercises, and mine clearing - areas which were off limits for Europe's previous engagements with Azerbaijan. For the first time, at such a high level of engagement, bilateral cooperation is going to include green energy, low-carbon hydrogen, digital transformation, industry upgradation, connectivity, and innovation. It is not what the list contains that matters but what it implies.

In addition to energy, the Middle Corridor was the second structural pillar in the discussion. Merz pointed out that “the South Caucasus is gaining increasing importance as a key connectivity hub linking Europe and Asia.” This means that German commercial interests in Central Asia and China are being routed via Baku in ways that were not commercially significant even just five years ago. The war with Iran has facilitated this trend, because the flows from the Strait of Hormuz have been interrupted, and the routes across Russia have been cut off due to sanctions against Russia. Thus, the only available route left to use is the one via the Caspian Sea.

Azerbaijani leader confirmed that Azerbaijan joined the Central Asian Consultative Meetings format last year as a full member, formalising a bridging role between Central Asian economies and European markets that its infrastructure has been performing in practice for several years. Working groups established under the new strategic agenda will, in theory, allow German industrial and logistics companies to engage with that corridor in a more structured way than the current patchwork of bilateral deals allows.

The Berlin visit concludes an extraordinary European tour in which, within a span of months, Aliyev has met with the European Commission President, the European Council President, the Slovakian President in Shusha, and now the German Chancellor and President. What stands out from all these talks, which he held consistently, is how Azerbaijan is a dependable partner when it comes to energy issues, a peacemaker in the South Caucasus region, a connecting link for east-west commerce, and a country that expects to be considered strategically. Berlin, on July 21, turned out to be the most important European capital to accept all this so far.