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Nazrin Abdul

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To ensure lasting energy security, a country must either control and protect its own energy resources or cultivate dependable, long-term partnerships. Recent global developments have once again confirmed a fundamental reality: states ultimately act in their own national interests, and reliance on unstable or ill-considered partners can quickly expose strategic vulnerabilities. The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz offers a striking example. As one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies and substantial volumes of natural gas transit, any disruption there reverberates immediately across international markets. Such events reinforce the urgent need for diversified export routes and resilient supply chains.

In response to growing geopolitical uncertainty, Europe has accelerated its search for alternative energy sources, particularly following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War. A landmark step in this direction was the 2022 Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Energy Sector signed between Azerbaijan and the European Commission. This agreement reflects Azerbaijan’s emergence as a reliable and strategically important energy partner for Europe. At the same time, ongoing peace efforts in the South Caucasus, including the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, have further strengthened regional stability, enhancing prospects for secure energy cooperation and long-term economic integration.

Among emerging suppliers, Azerbaijan has firmly established itself as a strategic energy pillar for Europe. In 2025, Germany relied mainly on Norway, the United States (LNG), Belgium, and Russia (via EU states), while Austria sourced gas largely through Germany and Italy. Expanding westward, Azerbaijan began direct deliveries to Germany and Austria last year - translating credibility into concrete, long-term commitments. In June, SOCAR signed a 10-year supply agreement with Germany’s state-owned SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe). Volumes will gradually rise to 15 terawatt-hours annually (around 1.5 bcm), alongside investments in upstream production and infrastructure, including gas compressors, strengthening Europe’s supply resilience.

Azerbaijan’s reach extends further: it supplies Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, North Macedonia, and Ukraine. Gas flows to Turkiye via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), onward to Syria through Turkiye’s network, and to Georgia via the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP).

At the core is the Southern Gas Corridor, whose European section, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), has a capacity of 12 billion cubic meters per year. Deliveries through TAP to Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria began on December 31, 2020. Gas from the Shah Deniz field also reaches Turkiye via the South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum) and TANAP, underscoring Azerbaijan’s role in Europe’s diversified energy network.

Azerbaijan’s recent achievements underscore its growing strategic weight in regional and global energy markets. At the 12th Ministerial Meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and the 4th Green Energy Advisory Council held in Baku, President Ilham Aliyev announced that the number of countries receiving Azerbaijani pipeline gas increased from 12 to 16 within a single year. By this measure, Azerbaijan ranks first globally in the number of countries supplied with gas via pipeline infrastructure.

While Europe remains the most commercially significant destination, export routes have been successfully diversified beyond the continent. Notably, gas deliveries to Syria have commenced for the first time, contributing to efforts to mitigate acute electricity shortages there. President Aliyev emphasized that diversification is essential not only for importing nations but equally for producers, highlighting that Azerbaijan’s model of cooperation, built on shared interests among transit states and consumers, has underpinned its steady progress for more than a decade.

At present, the Southern Gas Corridor is operating at full capacity, prompting consideration of expansion measures and additional interconnectors to meet rising demand. Yet Azerbaijan’s vision of energy security extends beyond hydrocarbons. The country is actively transforming itself from a traditional oil and gas exporter into a competitive producer and supplier of green energy.

Flagship renewable projects illustrate this strategic shift. The 240 MW Khizi-Absheron wind power plant, financed by ACWA Power, and major solar initiatives developed in partnership with Masdar demonstrate the effective alignment of foreign investment with domestic expertise. At the same time, SOCAR and private sector actors are expanding their portfolios into alternative energy, reflecting strong market demand and long-term growth potential.

Infrastructure development is advancing in parallel. Transmission networks are being strengthened, including planned electricity cables across the Black Sea to Europe and new connections from Central Asia to Azerbaijan. Relevant agreements have been concluded, and feasibility studies are approaching completion.

The first phase of the 2026-2027 green energy development program envisages the construction of 10 solar and wind power plants. The construction has begun on a 445 MW solar plant in Bilasuvar and a 340 MW solar project in Jabrayil; and preparatory work is underway for a 240 MW wind project in Kalbajar, where wind potential is measured at elevations of 3,100 meters. By 2030, renewables are expected to account for 38% of installed capacity, with partner agreements providing for an additional 700 MW of onshore and offshore capacity. By 2032, Azerbaijan aims to generate between 6 and 8 gigawatts of electricity from alternative sources.

As President Ilham Aliyev noted, once these projects are realized, they will be highly sustainable and hold existential importance for many countries’ energy corridors.

Azerbaijan is consolidating its position as a gas supplier, extending its geographic reach, investing in infrastructure, and advancing renewable energy initiatives. If fully realized, these measures are expected to improve national energy resilience while contributing to the stability and long-term relevance of energy corridors that connect Europe, the Middle East, and other regions.