Azernews.Az

Qabil Ashirov

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The war between Russia and Ukraine, which erupted in 2022 and quickly became the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II, has now entered its fourth year. Despite the efforts of various international actors to bring an end to hostilities, the conflict continues, with little indication that these interventions have achieved their intended effect.

In the early years, sanctions against Russia and military and financial aid to Ukraine produced some tangible outcomes. Kyiv was able to reclaim portions of the territory initially lost to Russian forces, and Russia’s economy experienced pressure. However, as the conflict has dragged on, it has evolved into a literal trench war, with neither side achieving decisive breakthroughs. Over the past year, Russia has secured minor tactical victories on the battlefield, but the front lines remain largely unchanged.

The West continues to devise new sanctions aimed at further weakening Russia, including restrictions on oil exports, yet at first glance, these measures appear to have lost their potency. Russia seems to have built a degree of immunity to the punitive measures. Early predictions of an economic collapse did not materialize, and the Kremlin retained enough maneuverability to circumvent restrictions on energy sales. Recent market speculation suggested that a drop in oil prices to $50 per barrel could make sanctions more effective, yet this scenario has yet to materialize.

Then, in a dramatic twist, global attention shifted to gold. The price of gold suddenly surged by more than 100%, turning the spotlight back to Russia, the world’s second-largest gold exporter. While Russian reserves of foreign currency and securities held in Western banks remain frozen, its gold reserves are physically held within Russia’s borders. According to available data, the Central Bank of Russia holds about 2,300 tons of gold, and the recent price spike has increased the bank’s reserves by roughly $250 billion—essentially offsetting the assets frozen in Western institutions.

Many analysts argue that this sharp rise in gold prices may provide Russia with a fresh lifeline in the war, strengthening its financial resilience. As the second-largest gold exporter globally, Russia possesses a significant buffer against sanctions.

Speaking to Azernews on issue, Ukrainian political analist Vadym Triukhan noted that this will absolutely not affect Russia’s position in the war. Gold is the last thing they usually trade; usually, they sell it. Plus, this is such a market fluctuation - it exists or it doesn’t.

“Russia’s position in the war is directly influenced by another factor — its ability to quickly get money through selling its own resources. And this is exactly where it currently has serious problems. One can say that the West is gradually pushing it completely aside.

Literally two weeks ago, 14 European countries decided to block the Baltic Sea for tankers of the so-called “shadow oil fleet” of Russia. Americans began seizing Russian tankers under different flags. In this way, Russia’s ability to export oil was significantly limited,” he said.

Political analist underscored that Trump had announced that he had agreed with India that it would completely stop buying Russian oil. For Russia, this is a colossal loss, about 45 billion dollars. Therefore, Vadym Triukhan thinks that Russia will not manage to get by here with gold.

“But one needs to be objective. Its reserves are still enough for at least a year of war. Everything will depend on how peace negotiations develop and what Trump’s attitude toward Putin will be, who constantly deceives him. Very recently he gave his word about a so-called energy ceasefire, but already on the fourth day carried out a massive missile-drone strike.

Tonight, half of Ukraine did not sleep. Strikes were carried out on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and other cities. The goal was one- to plunge Ukraine into darkness and deprive Ukrainians of the ability to heat their homes and use electricity.

Trump also sees all this: he promised, gave his word, then took back his word. If he changes his position and introduces even stricter sanctions or provides Ukraine with the necessary weapons, the situation on the front could change,” he concluded.