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Elnur Enveroglu

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The year 2025 confirmed that the international system is no longer anchored in the certainties that defined the early post-Cold War era. It did not, however, deliver a clean break into a fully formed multipolar order. Instead, global politics settled into an uncomfortable in-between phase marked by diffusion of power, strategic caution and persistent instability. As 2026 approaches, this transitional character looks set to harden rather than resolve.

Throughout 2025, the United States remained the single most influential actor in global affairs. Its military reach, technological leadership, financial dominance through the dollar and dense alliance networks continued to shape outcomes across regions. Yet Washington increasingly found itself constrained by the limits of unilateral action. Its ability to impose political solutions without negotiation or burden sharing has steadily diminished. This erosion does not amount to a decline in the traditional sense but reflects a system in which influence is more contested, and outcomes are more negotiated.

China continued to expand its weight within this environment. In 2025, Beijing reinforced its role as a central economic and technological pole while carefully avoiding direct confrontation with the United States. Its strategy remained calibrated rather than disruptive, focused on incremental gains in influence across Asia, the Global South and strategic industries. Meanwhile, Russia sustained its relevance through military power and geopolitical disruption, even as its economic and technological foundations came under prolonged strain.

The resulting system can best be described as limited multipolarity. The United States remains the primary centre of gravity, but it no longer exercises exclusive authority. Secondary powers such as China, Russia and India increasingly shape the margins and sometimes the direction of global decision-making. This configuration is likely to persist into 2026, producing a world that is more fragmented, more transactional and less predictable than before.

The Russia-Ukraine war was the clearest illustration of this evolving order in 2025. The conflict did not move decisively towards resolution, nor did it escalate into a wider confrontation between major powers. Instead, it settled into a prolonged war of attrition with shifting tactical advantages but no strategic breakthrough. Ukraine remained heavily dependent on Western military and financial support, while Russia absorbed mounting economic costs without abandoning its core objectives.

By the end of 2025, it became increasingly apparent that neither side was positioned for outright victory. This reality shaped the strategic thinking of external actors. For the United States and Europe, the priority shifted from achieving a decisive defeat of Russia to preventing further expansion of Russian influence while managing the long term burden of support for Kyiv. For Moscow, sustaining the conflict remained costly but preferable to accepting outcomes that would undermine regime credibility at home.

Looking to 2026, the most plausible scenario is not peace but managed instability. Pressure for diplomatic engagement is likely to increase, driven by economic fatigue, political constraints in Western capitals and the desire to reduce escalation risks. Yet a comprehensive settlement remains elusive. Any movement towards negotiations is more likely to produce a fragile status quo rather than a durable peace.

How Azerbaijan’s multi-vector diplomacy strengthens its 2026 outlook

Against this unsettled global backdrop, Azerbaijan enters 2026 with a degree of political and economic stability that stands out in its immediate region. While many states face internal polarisation or external vulnerability, Baku has prioritised continuity in governance, fiscal discipline and strategic planning. This stability is not accidental. It reflects a deliberate effort to shield the domestic economy from external shocks while leveraging geopolitical shifts to Azerbaijan’s advantage.

Economically, Azerbaijan approaches 2026 with strengthened macroeconomic buffers. Conservative budget assumptions, sustained contributions from the State Oil Fund and gradual expansion of the non oil sector have reduced exposure to global volatility. Energy exports remain central, but growing investment in transport corridors, renewable energy and manufacturing has broadened the economic base. This diversification, though incomplete, enhances resilience at a time when global markets remain uncertain.

Politically, Azerbaijan continues to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy anchored in sovereignty, regional connectivity and balanced partnerships. Relations with major powers are managed through a multi-vector approach, allowing Baku to avoid overdependence on any single external actor. This flexibility is likely to remain a key asset in 2026, particularly as competition between larger powers intensifies.

A central factor shaping Azerbaijan’s outlook is the prospect of a lasting peace with Armenia. Following the restoration of territorial integrity, the focus has shifted from conflict management to conflict resolution. Progress towards a comprehensive peace agreement would mark a structural change in South Caucasus geopolitics. For Azerbaijan, peace would unlock economic dividends through reopened transport links, cross-border trade and reduced security expenditure.

While negotiations remain complex, the strategic logic of peace is increasingly clear. A stable Azerbaijan-Armenia relationship would strengthen regional predictability, attract long-term investment and integrate the South Caucasus more deeply into Eurasian trade networks. In a world defined by uncertainty, Azerbaijan’s pursuit of stability and peace positions it as a constructive and increasingly influential regional actor in 2026.

Frozen confrontation shapes NATO-Russia relations going into 2026

NATO-Russia relations in 2025 reflected this hardened reality. The alliance completed its transition from deterrence by reassurance to deterrence by denial. Russia is no longer treated as a potential partner but as a structural adversary. Defence planning, force deployments and budgetary commitments across Europe increasingly reflect this assumption. This shift is not temporary and is unlikely to be reversed in 2026.

That said, both sides have shown an interest in maintaining minimal channels of communication. These mechanisms are not designed to rebuild trust but to prevent miscalculation. Risk reduction and crisis management have become the ceiling of engagement. Political normalisation remains contingent on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and there is little indication that such conditions will be met in the near term.

What will 2026 bring to Middle East

In the Middle East, 2025 underscored the persistent volatility of a region that remains deeply intertwined with global power competition. The war in Gaza and the ongoing Iran-Israel tension repeatedly raised fears of wider escalation. Yet these crises also revealed the reluctance of major powers to become directly entangled in a regional war with global consequences.

The United States maintained its security commitments while seeking to avoid being drawn into a broader conflict. Russia and China positioned themselves as diplomatic actors without assuming the risks of direct involvement. This pattern is likely to continue into 2026. While regional escalation remains a serious risk, particularly along the Iran-Israel axis, the probability of direct confrontation between major powers remains limited.

Instead, the Middle East is likely to remain a theatre of indirect competition. Proxy dynamics, political signalling and limited military actions will dominate, allowing external powers to defend their interests without crossing thresholds that would trigger wider war. This approach reflects a broader global trend towards managing conflict rather than resolving it.

US-China tensions enter phase of managed confrontation

The rivalry between China and the United States continued to define the strategic horizon in 2025. The competition intensified across economic, technological and security domains, but it remained carefully contained. Both sides demonstrated a clear understanding of the catastrophic consequences of direct military conflict. As a result, competition took the form of selective decoupling, regulatory confrontation and strategic signalling rather than open warfare.

Taiwan remained the most sensitive flashpoint. Military exercises and political rhetoric intensified, but neither side crossed red lines that would make conflict unavoidable. This pattern is likely to persist in 2026. The competition will deepen, particularly in technology and security partnerships, but it will remain a controlled confrontation rather than an armed one.

The concept that best captures this dynamic is managed rivalry. Both Washington and Beijing are preparing for long term competition while seeking to avoid short term disaster. This balance is difficult to maintain and prone to miscalculation, but it remains the dominant logic shaping their interaction.

Taken together, these dynamics suggest that 2026 will not bring systemic transformation but consolidation of uncertainty. The global order is neither collapsing nor stabilising. Instead, it is becoming more rigid in its divisions and more cautious in its conflicts. Power is more dispersed, but responsibility remains uneven. Conflict is more frequent, but escalation is more tightly managed.

For states navigating this environment, adaptability will be essential. Strategic autonomy, diversified partnerships and economic resilience will matter more than ideological alignment. The ability to operate within ambiguity rather than seek definitive outcomes will increasingly define success.

In this sense, 2025 marked the end of illusions about a return to a stable global order. The year ahead points towards a world that is tougher, more competitive and more fragmented, yet also acutely aware of its own vulnerabilities. The challenge of 2026 will not be to reshape the system but to manage it without allowing competition to tip into catastrophe.