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Qabil Ashirov

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International financial group ING Group expects Azerbaijan's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028.

According to the group's updated economic forecasts released on November 10, Azerbaijan's GDP growth is projected to reach 1.5% in 2026.

The forecast suggests that economic growth will accelerate to 3% in 2027 before moderating to 2.5% in 2028. This would represent a 1.5-percentage-point increase in the growth rate compared with 2026.

ING Group's quarterly projections also point to stronger economic activity in Azerbaijan in 2027. The financial group expects GDP growth of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2026 and 1.7% in the fourth quarter.

For 2027, quarterly growth is projected at 3% in the first quarter, 3.5% in the second quarter, 2% in the third quarter and 3.5% in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's draft 2027 state budget package projects average annual real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2027–2030, with non-oil and gas GDP expected to expand by an average of 4.4% annually.

The non-oil and gas sector is expected to serve as the main driver of economic growth during this period.

According to the document, the macroeconomic projections take into account Azerbaijan's economic development trends, the potential impact of global economic developments, existing sectoral strategic documents, medium-term development targets, ongoing reforms and budget policy parameters.

The country's strategic framework for the next planning period will be shaped by the Socio-Economic Development Strategy for 2027–2030 and the Second State Programme on the Great Return.

Under the draft budget projections, Azerbaijan's nominal GDP is expected to reach 141 billion manats in 2027. By comparison, nominal GDP stood at 126.5 billion manats in 2024 and is projected at 129.1 billion manats in 2025 and 138 billion manats in 2026.

Real GDP growth is forecast at 2.7% in 2027, while average annual real growth is expected to reach 3.3% over 2027–2030.

The non-oil and gas sector is projected to strengthen its contribution to the economy further. Its GDP is expected to reach 109.1 billion manats in 2027, representing real growth of 4.4%.

The sector's average annual real growth rate is also forecast at 4.4% throughout 2027–2030.

For comparison, non-oil and gas GDP amounted to 86.2 billion manats in 2024 and is projected to reach 92.3 billion manats in 2025 and 100 billion manats in 2026.