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Moody's expects growth in Azerbaijan's GDP

8 February 2016 17:18 (UTC+04:00)
Moody's expects growth in Azerbaijan's GDP

By Aynur Karimova

Moody’s Rating Agency has revealed its forecast on Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2017, projecting the figure around 1 percent, rising slowly thereafter.

The agency has changed Azerbaijan’s government bond and issuer ratings, approving them at Ba1.

Earlier, Standard & Poor’s international ratings agency forecasted Azerbaijan’s GDP growth to stand at 2 percent in 2017, 4 percent in 2018, and 4.5 percent in 2019.

Standard & Poor’s experts expect that GDP growth to reach 62 billion manats ($40 billion) in 2016, 69 billion manats ($44 billion) in 2017, 77 billion manats ($49 billion) in 2018, and 83 billion manats ($53 billion) in 2019.

Under the agency’s forecasts, GDP per capita will grow and reach $4,100 in 2016, $4,500 in 2017, $5,000 in 2018, and $5,400 in 2019.

The Azerbaijani State Statistics Committee reported that the country’s GDP volume amounted to 54.4 billion manats ($33.76 billion) in 2015 or by 1.1 percent more than in 2014.

The Azerbaijani government expects the economic growth of the country to hold steady at 1.8 percent in 2016.

The international financial institutions forecast Azerbaijan's GDP growth in coming years at different levels. In particular, the World Bank forecasts 2.6 percent of GDP growth in 2016, while for 2017 the figure will rise up to 2.7 percent.

The International Monetary Fund has kept its forecast for economic growth unchanged at 2.5 percent for next year.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects that the rate of Azerbaijan's GDP growth to be at 2.5 percent in 2016, while the Asian Development Bank reported that it has kept its forecast for economic growth in Azerbaijan at 2.8 percent in 2016.

Economists believe that the main factors that can affect the dynamics of Azerbaijan’s GDP are oil prices, global competitiveness of the national currency, and funds allocated from the state budget for investment.

The government, which is keen to boost the share of the non-oil sector in the country's GDP, has set a goal to develop competitive sub-spheres of this sector. It is planned that state support for production of non-oil products will be strengthened, new enterprises will be created and the reconstruction of the existing ones will be carried out.

Particular attention will be paid to the establishment of the enterprises for processing natural resources and agricultural products. In 2016, the timely and full redistribution of tax revenues from medium and large enterprises will be ensured in order to increase revenues from the non-oil sector.

Thus, Azerbaijan will achieve the increase of the share of the non-oil sector in the country's GDP.

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Aynur Karimova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Aynur_Karimova

Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz

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