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Qabil Ashirov

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The OECD cut its estimates for Italian growth in its latest Economic Outlook report, which was presented in Paris on Thursday, saying it sees Italy's GDP rising 0.4% this year and 0.6% in 2027, AzerNEWS reports, citing ANSA.

Those estimates were respectively 0.2 and 0.1 of a percentage point lower than the figures the organization gave it its December forecasts.

Inflation in Italy is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026, the report said.

The inflation forecast is 0.7 of a percentage point higher than given in previous estimates.

"The evolving conflict in the Middle East has human and economic costs for the countries directly involved, will test the resilience of the global economy," the OECD said.

"A halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure or damage of energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers".

Industry association Confindustria had said in its spring forecasts on Wednesday that Italy's GDP will rise by 0.5% this year if the Iran war ends this month.

It said growth will be flat this year if the war lasts until June and the economy will slide into recession, with GDP falling by 0.7%, in the worst-case scenario in which the war drags on throughout the year.

It had forecast 0.7% growth for Italy this year in the autumn.