Asia is and will continue to be the leading center for oil and energy demand growth as it seeks to fuel its rapidly growing economy and support the requirements of a rapidly expanding population, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, at the 5th Technical Meeting on Asian Energy and Oil Outlook in Vienna, Austria, Trend reports citing OPEC’s website.
“This is confirmed by our 2019 World Oil Outlook, which was officially launched on 5 November,” said the OPEC secretary general.
He pointed out that global oil demand is expected to increase by roughly 12 million barrels per day (mb/d), rising from 98.7 mb/d in 2018 to 110.6 mb/d in 2040. “The majority of this growth will come from Asia due rapid population growth, an expanding middle class and swift economic expansion.”
Barkindo went on to add that non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) oil demand is expected to rise by 21.4 mb/d between 2018 and 2040. “Of this, India and China will lead the way with an estimated demand growth of 5.4 mb/d and 4.4 mb/d, respectively.”
He noted that from 2018 to 2040, the economies of India and China combined are forecast to expand from 27 percent of the global economy to 40 percent.
“In both the medium- and long-term, the Asia-Pacific region is also set to be a leader in the expansion of refining capacity. At the global level, 8 mb/d of new crude distillation capacity from all assessed projects is expected between 2019 and 2024, with over 70 percent in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East,” said the OPEC secretary general.
As Barkindo said, increased refinery capacity in Asia will certainly require greater quantities of crude.
“This is reflected in the forecast for trade flows, which sees Asia-Pacific imports expanding. Our latest estimates show crude exports from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region increasing by around 7 mb/d between 2025 and 2040, rising to approximately 23 mb/d. This will make the Asia-Pacific region the primary outlet for Middle Eastern crude,” he added.
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