Azernews.Az

By Sabina Idayatova

Over two decades have passed since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict emerged between Armenia and Azerbaijan after Yerevan made territorial claims against the neighboring country. The conflict settlment remains deadlocked, but this status quo does not favor either side.

Armenia, which continues to occupy a part of Azerbaijan's territory, has been left out of regional projects due to its hostile stance. The country faces economic predicament, a high poverty rate, demographic problems, mass emigration, frequent public disturbances.

A million Azerbaijanis became refugees and internally displaced persons as a result of the conflict, which boiled into a brutal war in the early 1990s and has not reached its fair solution yet. The current situation of "no peace, no war" is aggravating for all the South Caucasus countries and impedes social, economic and political development of the region.

Armenia's uncosntructive policy is the key reason for the long-standing conflict remaining unresolved. Despite long-lasting efforts of mediators, no progress has been achieved in peace talks so far.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in a televised interview assessed the year 2012 negatively from the viewpoint of the peace negotiations, saying Armenia's intention is to maintain the status quo by all means while avoiding a settlement of the long-standing conflict.

"In addition to Nagorno-Karabakh, seven districts that have never been part of the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region and never had the Armenian population are under occupation today. So, the Azerbaijani population has been driven out of there. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Armenia to justify its occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Therefore, a change of the status quo is the main prerequisite for a settlement," President Aliyev said.

According to Aliyev, it is necessary to begin liberation of the Azerbaijani territories to change the status quo.

"In order to change the status quo, it is necessary to begin the de-occupation of Azerbaijani territories, and as soon as this process begins, I am sure that the negotiations will enter a new phase. Armenia's attempts to leave everything as it is and to shift responsibility for this situation in the talks on Azerbaijan can't be justified," the president said.

"Maybe in terms of propaganda they are still able to blame us. But if you look into the matter, I believe that Azerbaijan's position has always been consistent, principled and based on the principles and norms of international law," he added.

Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions. A fragile ceasefire has been in place since 1994, but efforts by US, Russian and French mediators have been largely fruitless so far. Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four resolutions on its pullout from the neighboring country's territories.

Armenia's armament ambitions

The Armenian authorites consider militarization as the only way to solve the deadlock in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

"In 2012, $350 million (16 percent) of Armenia's budget of $2.2 billion was allocated to military spending, and $451 million from the $2.5 billion (19 percent) budget was allocated to military expenses in 2013," Azerbaijani MP Aydin Mirzazade said.

According to Mirzazade, Armenia did not gain anything from the war, and merely severed the relations with major powers such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, which deprives it of a few billion dollars a year.

He said economic development is at zero level, and this is the main reason for the continuing migration from Armenia. Today 300,000 Armenians are feeding off Turkey whom they have announced as enemy. If the borders were open, they would flock to Azerbaijani territory, Mirzazade added.

Nothing has changed in Armenia in 2012 in terms of the economy.

Nevertheless, the status quo in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh lasting more than 20 years appears to be beneficial for Armenian authorities, which is interested in the long-standing dispute remaining unresolved and is trying to gain all advantages from the current situation.

In fact, the existing status quo in the conflict does not meet any nation's interest and should be changed in order to achieve a final solution.

Twenty years of diplomacy have not drastically changed the situation with the settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Despite long efforts, the OSCE Minsk Group, which is brokering the peace process, has failed to achieve a breakthrough. Generally, altering Armenia's foreign policy is very important for any change of realities. But this is not reflected in the actions of Yerevan.

Today, it is not worth expecting "a revolutionary change" in the structure of the Armenian political elite. The presidential elections scheduled for February 18, 2013 are likely to be conducted under the current status quo.

The former and incumbent Armenian president, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, came to power in the wave of the Nagorno-Karabakh war. They have always supported each other in their separatism intentions, being perpetrators of the killings of thousands of innocent Azerbaijanis. Initiating the war, the Armenian political regime sacrificed the future of their statehood and nation to their own interests, forcefully maintaining the status quo of occupation. The puppet regime in Nagorno-Karabakh, which survives thanks to foreign aid, tries to justify militarization and radicalization of the Armenian society.

Armenia's leaders have not even refrained from robbing their own nation, considering the country`s budget as their family budget or pocket. It is profitable for Armenian leaders to plunder the country and the people in the conditions of the status-quo in the Karabakh conflict.

Therefore, they have no choice but to expatiate regularly that Armenia is an adherent of a peaceful solution of the Karabakh conflict. Though Yerevan brazenly expresses its willingness to resolve the conflict by peaceful means, it does not show any progress in the settlement process, leaving all the efforts of the OSCE mediators and Baku fruitless. The main reason of Armenian delusively peaceful stance is the leadership's selfish interests.

This allows them to plunder the budget in the most uncontrolled and brazen way, squander international loans, guzzle away all humanitarian aid and donations from the diaspora.

It would be silly to expect any improvement in the living standards under the present Armenian government.

Like the former Armenian presidents, incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan will do everything he can in order to keep the situation unchanged.

Maintaining the status quo over Nagorno-Karabakh is beneficial not only for Armenia but also the international community. Stability in the South Caucasus is beneficial for the international community in the context of oil and gas projects. The more the international community highlights unacceptability of the status quo, the more the same superpowers cannot guarantee stability if the status quo changes.

Surely, Armenia's former and present presidents are interested in maintaining the current status quo. It would be better if the Armenian intention was finally realized and acknowledged by international observers and the mediators. In this case, they would probably react differently to both Armenia and the Karabakh settlement process as a whole.

Everyone familiar with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should agree that the status quo of "no peace, no war" is untenable. This conflict has caused endless suffering for both peoples involved. Peaceful coexistence of the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities that is strongly rejected by Armenia is vital to the stability of the region and is in the best interest of both countries.

The conflict can be solved strictly on the basis of respect for the sovereignty of countries and the inviolability of internationally recognized borders. Any territorial compromise is out of the question.